Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 271134
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
634 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA IS EXPECTED TO INCH
NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.  AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...COULD
SEE A FEW STORMS TRY TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR EAST THOUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS FOCUSED JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  OTHER
THAN THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR
EAST...DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY AS 925 HPA
WINDS REMAIN STEADY IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.  AS MIXING
INCREASES...THIS MOMENTUM SHOULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 20 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER WINDS REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...DID NOT SIDE
WITH HIGHEST GUIDANCE VALUES BUT HEDGED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF
THINGS.

SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WIND LINGERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SO
KEPT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

WEEKEND WILL END ON A MILD NOTE AS WELL...WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO KEEP THE WARM AIR IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AGAIN TOP OUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80 IN MOST AREAS.
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO COLLAPSE. EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT A BIT FARTHER EAST. LATER
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP
DIMINISHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOULD STILL BE A FAIRLY MILD DAY ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TUESDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN.

SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 60...
STILL LOOKS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
MODEST SHEAR/CAPE VALUES AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ON THE WEAK SIDE...AND A LITTLE UNCERTAIN WHETHER TIMING OF MID TO
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL COINCIDE WITH GREATER INSTABILITY...SO
AT THIS TIME NOT ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT.

MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS AS WELL...THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT SPOTTY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED MID-LVL DECK ON
WESTERN EDGE OF UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING MAINLY EAST OF I-29. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...BECOMING GUSTY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...



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