Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 200348
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1048 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTLY BISECTING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT WITH WINDS DYING
OFF IN A LESSENING GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. IN LIGHT OF THAT...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
IN OUR EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA...RANGING UPWARDS TO THE LOWER 70S

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND DRY
AIR...SO EXPECTING A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY EVENING THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARM AND WINDY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND A MINOR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A BAND OF RAINFALL TO MOVE THROUGH SO UPPED POPS A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LEFT SOME LOWER POPS IN ON THURSDAY OVER MAINLY
NORTHWEST IOWA. DID RAISE HIGHS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY THINKING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO MOVE IN TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
HEATING.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MILD AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE. STRONG TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL AID IN
KEEPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A TROUGH COULD SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE SO WILL
WAIT TO SEE WHAT COMES OF THIS. OTHERWISE...HIGHS MAINLY 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE 06Z TAFS WILL REFLECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ



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