Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 241724
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1124 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

FAIRLY STRONG WAVE MOVING THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MOISTURE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE WAVE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST DURING THE
EVENING. THE BRUNT OF THE FORCING LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH FROM ABOUT
3Z SUNDAY THROUGH 9Z SUNDAY AND REALLY FOCUSES ON THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. A DECENT DRY SLOT AND FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SHOULD FORCE
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST. AN ANALYSIS OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE A RAIN OR SNOW EVENT WITH LITTLE OR NO
CHANCE FOR SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT
SUSPECT THAT SNOW WILL START FALLING OVER MAINLY SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA DURING THE EVENING AS COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTLE IN NEAR
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW FALLING WITH
TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS ABOUT 34 DEGREES. THIS CHANCE FOR SNOW
WILL SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND WEST BUT SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO WORK
INTO THE AREA WHICH MAY SHUT DOWN AND SNOWFALL BEFORE IT CAN GET
GOING. OVERALL LOOKING AT MAINLY A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF SNOW
BY SUNRISE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN INTO NORTHWEST IOWA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES IT WILL BE ANOTHER MIXY AND MILD DAY AS WINDS
REMAIN FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION. WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH
A FEW LOWER 50S POSSIBLE DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. WITH
WINDS REMAINING UP LOWS TONIGHT WILL ALSO REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN SOUTHWEST MN TO THE MID 30S DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING IN OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 30S
NORTH AND EAST TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. A
LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY STEADY OUT OR RISE LATER IN
THE NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND PICK UP A BIT OVERNIGHT.

A SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...AND WITH WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AND GOOD MIXING HIGHS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS MID 40S TO MID
50S. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A
BIT FOR TUESDAY...THOUGH STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
THE WARMEST MODEL...AND LEANED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION WITH HIGHS MID
40S TO MID 50S. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT OFF
AND ON LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING AS WELL. MVFR CIGS...POSSIBLY
EVEN IFR...ARE LIKELY BY TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE...GUSTING
25 TO 35 KTS TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SNOW MAY CREATE AREAS
OF IFR VISIBILITY FOR A PERIOD LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL STAY
MVFR IN THE TAFS...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD


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