Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 190845
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
345 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

The main concerns the next 24 hours will be the heat and the
thunderstorm chances.

First the heat. Warm and very humid air will build through the day
as winds turn more southerly into the afternoon. Dew points early
this morning were in the lower to mid 70s across eastern Nebraska
with that humid air expected to advect north through the morning.
Have added in a few counties to the heat advisory but even those not
in the advisory heat indices will be well into the 90s. A few
locations near the Missouri River will likely reach or eclipse 110
degrees for a couple of hours late this afternoon.

The thunderstorm threat becomes very interesting late this afternoon
and early this evening as a strong right entrance region to the
upper jet moves in just northeast of the area. This sets up a very
favorable profile for potential organized severe weather, especially
a wind threat with dry air aloft across southwest MN. A deep inflow
of southerly winds from about 800mb to the surface will quickly
transition to strong southwest flow around 750mb. Winds aloft in the
500mb to 200mb layer running about 70 to 90 knots which might give a
little extra punch to the potential forward propagation into the
strong inflow. CAPE values around 3000 J/kg will also lead towards
the potential for organized severe storms. Suspect a potential for a
few supercells just north of the area late afternoon and evening,
then a turn to the southeast and becoming more of a linear wind
threat with some potential for westward development into the strong
inflow and enhanced EML. The best chance for severe thunderstorms
should be from about 6 pm to 11 pm.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Appears to be another warm sultry day across the region on Thursday.
Cloud debris across the north may keep things a shade cooler, but
with full sun across the south, the heat advisory is warranted.  May
need to expand the headline northward depending on where the clouds
set up.

A series of short waves look to track through the region Thursday
night into Friday morning. Certainly not as much shear as Tuesday
night, but a decent set up for elevated storms capable of producing
hail with very steep lapse rates from 700-500 mb.

A few more disturbances track through the area on Friday night
creating the outside chance for scattered storms across the area.

The weekend looks to be mainly dry with surface ridge building into
the Northern Plains on Sunday.  With the northerly flow developing
on Sunday, cooler conditions will prevail Sunday into Monday before
warmer more humid conditions develop mid week.  Wednesday appears to
be unsettled, with another set of disturbances tracking through the
region topping the ridge across the Central portion of the country.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Scattered 4-5k ft ceilings will lift northward overnight. Models
indicate some potential for this ceiling to drop into MVFR levels
briefly, but also feel models are overdone on low RH levels.

Not sold on any widespread convection developing after midnight
enough to impact the terminals. An isolated shower could pop-up
but probability not high enough to include.

The biggest concerns for Wednesday focus on convection chances.
Still far too much uncertainty to include any prevailing mention.
Convection will be developing early this morning over western ND
and dropping southeast. It will likely become organized, but a
strong EML is also advecting northward which may keep it just out
of the CWA.

However if strong heating takes place tomorrow, don`t be surprised
to see scattered convection along the boundary in central SD
later in the afternoon. Again though, confidence is too low to
mention.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for SDZ038-050-052>054-057>071.

MN...None.
IA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for IAZ001-012-013-020>022-031-032.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for IAZ031-032.

NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for NEZ013-014.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...Dux



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