Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 050503
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1103 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA SHOULD CLEAR
EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR
START FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MIDDLE AND EVENTUALLY LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NORTHWESTERLY SHORT WAVE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA STEADILY FRIDAY.

BOTH DYNAMIC AND THERMAL SUPPORT/FRONTOGENESIS ARE WEAK AND THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH OVERALL SUPPORT FOR A WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW EVENT...THUS POPS WILL STAY AT CHANCE WITH THE BEST SHOT STILL
APPEARING TO BE IN THE NORTHEAST. IF THE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS AND
REACHES THE SURFACE...NO REASON AT THIS TIME TO EXPECT AS MUCH AS A
HALF INCH. OF COURSE...THE LOWER LAYERS MOISTENING INDEPENDENTLY WILL
BE AN AID IN GETTING ANY FLAKES TO THE SURFACE. THE GFS SEEMS TO
GIVE THE BEST OF THE WEAK SUPPORT AND SUGGESTS AN INCH MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE IN PLACES BUT WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS AND KEEP AMOUNTS
DOWN TO THAT LESS THAN HALF INCH TERRITORY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS EAST
TO NEAR 20 FAR SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS IS REFLECTIVE OF THE WEST TO
EAST INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING WEAK WARM ADVECTION. IF THE
FLOW STAYS LIGHT LONGER...A PLACE OR TWO WITH THE FRESH DEEP SNOW IN
NORTHWEST IOWA COULD BRIEFLY THREATEN ZERO BEFORE TEMPERATURES LEVEL
OFF AND START TO WARM. FRIDAY WILL SEE STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES
WITH LITTLE SUNSHINE NEEDED IN THIS MIXING PATTERN. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR FREEZING EAST TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE WILL DIG SOUTH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SO AT THIS
TIME EXPECTING MAINLY HIT AND MISS SNOW CHANCES. THE INITIAL CHANCES
WILL COME ON SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE SOME LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL SD AS ENOUGH WARM AIR EXISTS IN THE
LOW LEVEL TO KEEP THE THREAT LIQUID. AS THIS BIT OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHIFTS EAST THERE WILL BE A CONTINUING THREAT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WHILE AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY A TENTH OF TWO...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MAYBE A HALF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. BECAUSE OF THE EXISTING SNOW ANY NEW SNOW THAT
DOES FALL COULD CREATE SOME BLOWING...BUT MAINLY DRIFTING SNOW.
OTHERWISE...SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MILD AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER
LIKE SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S...SOME MID 40S POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL
SD...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THOUGH THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE EAST AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH...AT LEAST FOR A SHORT PERIOD
AS WE TRANSITION BETWEEN FLOW PATTERNS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
WARMING...BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL LOOKING PRETTY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WITH SOME FAIRLY
DEEP COLD AIR DO NOT DOUBT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW PERIODS OF
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. PATCH FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS RIVERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WILL HELP IMPROVE FOG. A
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL BRING LIGHT
SNOW...ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...


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