Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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971
FXUS63 KFSD 041733
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1133 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW THIS MORNING. WHILE
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT HAS
TO BE OVERCOME BELOW THE CLOUD DECK...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM SUGGEST AT LEAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE RAISED POPS
NORTH OF I- 90...BUT WAVE IS TRACKING A LITTLE BIT FURTHER SOUTH
THAN ANTICIPATED. HAVE CARRIED POPS NORTH OF A LINE FROM HURON
THROUGH SPIRIT LAKE...BUT WILL BE MONITORING IN CASE NEED TO CARRY
IT EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. WAVE SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE FORECAST AREA
BY 15Z THIS MORNING WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS LEADING TO NICE WARMING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THERE IS LIMITED SNOW COVER.

AS THE SUN SETS TONIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY
WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. AS NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEADING TO RISING
TEMPERATURES. HAVE TRIED TO WORK NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES TRENDS
INTO THE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION MAY APPROACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE 09-12Z
FRIDAY ALONG A FROM CHAMBERLAIN TO HURON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

STILL SEEING A SOMEWHAT STRONGER TROUGH TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY...WHICH MOST MODELS POINT TO SWINGING THROUGH WITH A
COUPLE OF DIFFERENT WAVES. THE FIRST WEAKER WAVE SLIDES PRIMARILY
THROUGH NEBRASKA...BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE MORNING/MIDDAY. A TRAILING WAVE DROPS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD 18Z...SHIFTING BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL TO
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. ECMWF HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVERALL...KEEPING OUR FORECAST AREA COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH
THE DAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIP. WILL STICK WITH POPS IN THE LOWER TO MID CHANCE RANGE FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...BUT HAVE LOWERED PROJECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO
LESS THAN A HALF INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES IN OUR WEST
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND
THE WAVE...WHILE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER
20S.

WEEKEND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK MILD...WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE WEST...WITH EASTERN AREAS ALSO LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS NEAR TO JUST
ABOVE FREEZING. WARMING IN THE EAST WILL BE HAMPERED BY THE RECENT
HEAVY SNOW...BUT MIXING EXPECTED TO BE QUITE EFFICIENT ON SUNDAY AS
DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...SO DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM A
BROAD MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN STORY OVER THE
WEEKEND FOCUSES ON THE SHARP INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH
A MODEST CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH THE LATE WEEKEND WAVE...AGAIN
KEEPING PRECIP THREAT OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER OTHER MODELS
SHOW BETTER CONSISTENCY IN DIGGING THE WAVE FARTHER SOUTH AND WILL
HANG ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...SHARP COOLING ALOFT BEHIND THE WAVE WILL CREATE SLIGHT
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN MORE OF A CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWER SCENARIO INSTEAD OF JUST A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW.
WHILE NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE...THE SNOW
GENERATION AREA WILL BE NEAR THE DENDRITIC ZONE...SO SNOW COULD BE
ON THE FLUFFIER/DRIER SIDE...AND AS WINDS INCREASE TO 30-40 MPH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WOULD BE MORE PRONE TO BLOWING OR DRIFTING
THAN SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONE WOULD INDICATE. HAVE ADDED A MENTION
OF BLOWING SNOW TO NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...
WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CURRENTLY
LOOK A LITTLE HIGHER.

COLDER AIR MAKES A PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS PERSIST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE DOES BECOME MORE SHALLOW
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT DROPPING FIRMLY INTO
THE FAVORED DENDRITIC ZONE ACROSS THE EAST...POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
FLURRIES WITH ANY STRATOCU THAT IS PRESENT. EASTERN AREAS ALSO MOST
LIKELY TO SEE STRONGEST WINDS PERSIST INTO MONDAY...AND WILL LINGER
MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN AREA WITH BETTER CHANCE TO SEE FLURRIES.

QUIETER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TUESDAY
STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE THE MOST PLEASANT DAY WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS AT BEST FOR AREAS NEAR/EAST OF I-29.
DECREASING WINDS AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH 05/18Z. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS
OF CEILINGS 1-3K FEET FROM BKX/FSD/SUX AND EAST THROUGH 04/21Z.
ANOTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE CEILINGS 2-3K FEET DEVELOPING WEST OF A
HON/MHE/PKS LINE AFTER 05/12Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...



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