Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 240848
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
248 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

FAIRLY STRONG WAVE MOVING THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MOISTURE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE WAVE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST DURING THE EVENING. THE
BRUNT OF THE FORCING LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH FROM ABOUT 3Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 9Z SUNDAY AND REALLY FOCUSES ON THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA. A DECENT DRY SLOT AND FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SHOULD FORCE PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST. AN
ANALYSIS OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE A RAIN OR SNOW
EVENT WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. WITH THE
COOLER AIR ALOFT SUSPECT THAT SNOW WILL START FALLING OVER MAINLY
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE EVENING AS COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTLE
IN NEAR FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW FALLING WITH
TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS ABOUT 34 DEGREES. THIS CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND WEST BUT SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO WORK INTO THE
AREA WHICH MAY SHUT DOWN AND SNOWFALL BEFORE IT CAN GET GOING.
OVERALL LOOKING AT MAINLY A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF SNOW BY
SUNRISE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN INTO NORTHWEST IOWA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES IT WILL BE ANOTHER MIXY AND MILD DAY AS WINDS
REMAIN FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION. WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH
A FEW LOWER 50S POSSIBLE DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. WITH
WINDS REMAINING UP LOWS TONIGHT WILL ALSO REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN SOUTHWEST MN TO THE MID 30S DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING IN OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 30S
NORTH AND EAST TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. A
LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY STEADY OUT OR RISE LATER IN
THE NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND PICK UP A BIT OVERNIGHT.

A SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...AND WITH WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AND GOOD MIXING HIGHS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS MID 40S TO MID
50S. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A
BIT FOR TUESDAY...THOUGH STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
THE WARMEST MODEL...AND LEANED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION WITH HIGHS MID
40S TO MID 50S. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 24/21Z. FROM 24/21Z-25/06Z CEILINGS WILL
LOWER FROM THE NORTHWEST TO 2-3K FEET AND AREAS OF VISIBILITIES
3-5SM -RASN WILL DEVELOP. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AT 25/06Z.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...


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