Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 260856
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
356 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN DRAWING A BIT DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN LITTLE IF ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
AS OF 3 AM CDT. HIGH-RES MODELS STILL INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POCKETS OF 3-5SM VISIBILITY DEVELOPING TOWARD 11Z...MAINLY FROM THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
ALSO ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE COOLING. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG HERE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT
FEEL WILL SEE MUCH IN WAY OF 2SM OR LOWER VISIBILITY.

REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT LOOK QUIET WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
PROGGED TO SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPS TODAY...WHICH SHOULD REACH THE 80S IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  COULD SEE SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW MEANDERS NORTHWARD
THROUGH IOWA.  NOT MUCH IN THE WAY IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY OR
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND THE UPPER
LOW WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST
TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MIGRATE NORTH ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.  WITH
WEAK BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE...HAVE SIDED WITH SLOWER EVOLUTION OF
POPS AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.  INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY MEAGER...SO HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED T.  MORE OF AN INTERESTING SET UP
ON WEDNESDAY AS STRONG COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. COULD
SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.  POST
FRONTAL...APPEARS AS THOUGH SHOWERS MAY LINGER AS LEADING SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST AND PATTERN REINFORCES ITSELF WITH STRONGER
DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERLY PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AS WELL
WITH THE JET STREAM TEMPORARILY DIPPING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

DURING THE PERIOD 08Z-15Z AREAS OF VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN LIGHT FOG
WITH LOCAL VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM AND CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET IN
FOG. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH 27/06Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...


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