Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 281736
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1136 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Relatively messy forecast today with band of precipitation
associated with 700 mb frontogenesis trying to work into the area.
Band is struggling with lack of moisture, but will have the
potential for a very light snow event north of I-90 today. Am not
expecting snow to result in more than a dusting with moisture
severely limited. Short term high res models show light amounts of
spurious precip, so have left chance pops along the highway 14
corridor.

Upper level trough moves through the region tonight with isentropic
lift developing on the 290K surface across the eastern half of
the forecast area. With the slightly stronger lift, there appears to
be deeper saturation potentially leading to some light snowfall
across the area.  Have raised pops into the low likelies in
southwest Minnesota, with high chance pops extending down into
northwest Iowa. Have up to an inch of snowfall across the region
overnight tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

A small threat for precipitation will linger over areas mainly east
of Interstate 29 on Wednesday morning but amounts will be light.
This is in response to the exiting wave moving through MN and mid
level thermal band. Clouds should decrease through the day with a
bit of a gusty northwest wind to deal with. With a chilly air mass
in place and snow on the ground highs should be stuck in the 30s.

This chilly air mass will remain in place as another smaller wave
will move through Wednesday night into Thursday. Gusty winds and
highs in the 30s will feel a bit raw. Light snow will be possible
over southwest MN late Wednesday night and Thursday.

Cool high pressure settles into the area Thursday night into Friday
morning bringing cool morning lows in the teens and lower 20s.

After this cool morning west coast troughing will bring ridging to
the Plains states which will set up warming Saturday into Monday. A
wave does look to eject into the northern Plains which will bring a
chance for precipitation Sunday night into Monday as well as
slightly cooler temperatures on Monday. Saturday and Sunday should
prove to be very nice with highs in the 50s. Some 60s will be likely
as well if the majority of the snow cover is gone.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Primary forecast concern is ceilings through Wednesday. Currently
ceilings are from IFR to VFR. For much of the afternoon expect
that lower ceilings will slowly move southeastward toward Sioux
Falls and Sioux City toward sunset. Then expect MVFR to IFR
conditions much of the night. Drier air and higher ceilings will
move into the area after 1400 UTC Wednesday. There will be some
light snow overnight but expect that to primarily be in southwest
Minnesota and northwest Iowa. While visibilities could briefly
drop below 3SM in Sioux Falls, the probability is low so will not
include in TAF at this time.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Schumacher



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