Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFSD 232150
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
350 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

FORCING CONTINUES TO DWINDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING
DIMINISHING LIGHT SNOWFALL FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. MAYBE AN
ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN FAR SOUTHEAST NORTHWEST
IOWA BUT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S NOT EXPECTING TOO MANY
PROBLEMS. WITH CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ALL NIGHT BUMPED LOWS UP JUST A
TOUCH BUT THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE
NIGHT BUT AT THIS TIME ONLY ANTICIPATING A CHANCE OF THE CLOUD COVER
BREAKING OUT IN CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. SO WENT COLDEST ON
LOWS THERE.

THERE COULD BE SOME SURPRISE SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...NOT A
GREAT CHANCE...BUT WITH THE WET GROUND SUSPECT THAT ANY AREAS THAT
CAN SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING WOULD LIKELY SEE STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT AGAIN WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS  GIVEN FAIRLY MOIST GROUND
LEVEL AIR MASS AN STILL A BIT OF AN INVERSION AROUND 900MB. STRONG
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE A MORE STANDARD 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EVOLVE TOWARDS A COOLER PATTERN AS
ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARDS A NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE HUDSON
BAY LOW TRIES TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF TOWARDS THE NEW YEAR.
RELATIVELY MILD PATTERN TO START OFF WITH FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO
WITH 925 HPA TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C DURING THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS
DAY.  CLOUDS AND LOW SUN ANGLE WILL LIMIT WARMING POTENTIAL
SOME...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON BOTH THE LOWS AND HIGHS.

NEXT SYSTEM COMES IN ON THURSDAY AS A PAIR OF OPEN PHASED WAVES.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NORTHERN WAVE WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AS THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM INTENSIFIES.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LACK OF SATURATION ALOFT AS THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GET ICE IN THE COLUMN.  AS
SUCH...HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TRANSITIONING TO
CHANCE POPS FURTHER TO THE EAST.  ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

COOLER AIR STARTS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
WAVE ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WORK
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH POTENTIALLY EVEN COOLER AIR
WORKING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  WHILE THE GFS IS COOLER
BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES C THAN THE ECMWF...IT IS LESS WINDY THAN THE GFS.
 FOR NOW...SIDED TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE AND RAISED WINDS IN THE
OUTER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED IN MUCH OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND ALONG AND
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER THIS MORNING. BOTH AREAS OF SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE
SNOW IS FALLING VSBYS EXPECTED TO BE FROM 1 TO 3 SM THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING VSBYS LATE THIS MORNIGN AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS SNOW COMES TO AN END. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS
OF SNOW...LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW THIS MORNING COULD REDUCE VSBYS TO 3SM AND THERE COULD ALSO
BE SOME LIGHT FOG IN SW MN INTO SE SD DURING DAY REDUCING VSBYS
BELOW 6SM. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 12Z
WED. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 1000 FT THROUGH 00Z WITH A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT ABOVE 1000 FT BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.