Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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114
FXUS63 KFSD 202253
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
553 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Cool and cloudy conditions persist this afternoon. With a bit of
clearing over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota, a few
diurnal based showers or sprinkles may continue through sunset.
Temperatures will peak slightly cooler than the seasonal normals,
with the warmest readings in the Missouri River valley where strato-
cu has thinned. Otherwise, dry air aloft settles into the area
tonight into Friday morning which will allow for dry conditions
and partly cloudy skies. Still some residual moisture in the 925mb
to 850mb layer so suspect that diurnally driven cumulus will be
likely late Friday morning into the early evening. Enough moisture
that skies could approach broken west of the James River. But,
still expecting a decent amount of sunshine. Highs on Friday will
be in the 50s to lower 60s while highs on Saturday will be in the
mid 60s. One thing to watch will be lows both Friday morning and
Saturday morning which should drop into the mid 30s and might
produce a few areas of frost.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Friday night into Saturday the dry air begins to take over in the
lower levels as well as the upper levels which will set up another
very nice weekend as this dry air holds pretty steady into Sunday
evening. Light winds on Saturday will gradually transition to
southerly winds Saturday night and becomes windy Sunday afternoon
into Monday. This will bring very mild lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s on Monday morning. With highs from 65 to 75 both Sunday and
Monday.

A fairly quick but generally well agreed upon jet max will swing
through on Monday and bring the threat for a few showers with it.
Instability continues to look low with this progressive system so at
best will have an isolated thunderstorm mention.

Tuesday through Thursday will see an active pattern, but with the
upper level jet buried pretty far to the south will need a fairly
negatively tilted wave to bring moisture and instability back to the
north.

Some hints that this type of stronger system could occur by days 8
through 10, which would be Friday through Sunday the next weekend.
This would do two things, bring an increased threat for rain and
thunderstorms but also bring an end to our multiple nice weekends
that we have seen.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 551 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Clouds will decrease through the evening, leading to mostly clear
skies overnight. Winds will also drop off to very light tonight,
and with clearing expected cannot rule out some patchy fog across
the area.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dux
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM



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