Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 070153
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
853 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AND MINIMAL CHANCE POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN
ZONES NORTH OF I 90 LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CURRENTLY IN NORTHWEST ND MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS COMPLEX IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT SHORT
WAVE...BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE DID NOT WANT TO INCLUDE HIGHER POPS
AT THIS TIME. A BIT MORE CONCERNED ABOUT A SECOND SHORT WAVE WHICH
THE VARIOUS HIRES MODELS BLOW UP CONVECTION WITH WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
MONDAY MORNING. THE MAIN WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO
ALL IN ALL A MESSY DAY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

A PLEASANT AND QUIET EVENING AHEAD AS NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT IN
MUCH DRIER AIR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. WITH THE
DRIER AIR IN PLACE LOWERED LOWS A BIT AS WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT TO
CALM IN MOST SPOTS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29. LOWS WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. INSTABILITY NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE BUT DECENT WINDS ALOFT AND
DRY LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS COULD SUPPORT SOME SMALL HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR SO. KEPT POPS IN THE MID RANGE AS CHANCES STILL
LOOK GOOD BUT THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A LACK OF MOISTURE....SO
GENERALLY A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE. KEPT HIGHS ABOUT AS IS WHICH IS
STILL MAINLY THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SWEEP TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST ON MONDAY EVENING...WITH ANY CONVECTION IN OUR
SOUTHEAST WINDING DOWN BY LATE EVENING. THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BEHIND THE SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH COOLING THERMAL PROFILES...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
50S.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNING TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
SMIDGE...WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING THETA E ADVECTION/INSTABILITY WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL THEN BE
MAXIMIZED ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWING ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
READINGS BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 ON FRIDAY. MODELS THEN
SUGGEST SLIGHT COOLING BY NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND THE EXITING
SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNCERTAIN WITH MODEL
DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST TURNS MORE
COMPLICATED AS WE HEAD INTO TOMORROW. ONE WEAK WAVE AND WIND SHIFT
SHOULD CROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING...AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED WITH
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION. IF WE CAN HEAT UP ENOUGH DURING THE
DAY...COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN WAVE AND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
STORMS...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. BUT AM EXPECTING AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY. IF WE GET ENOUGH SUN AND ARE THUS ABLE TO
MIX...WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME BLUSTERY BY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KHON AND KFSD...WHERE GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS
SEEM POSSIBLE.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD





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