Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 110826
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
326 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.  LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT
LINGERS. PRECIPITATION TRENDS CONTINUE TO POINT TO MORE LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES FURTHER EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A DRIER AIRMASS IS IN
PLACE.  FOR TODAY...ANY BREAKS IN THE STRATUS THAT DEVELOP LATER
THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY FILL BACK GIVEN THE WEAK COLD ADVECTION
ALOFT.  HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO HAVE A FEW
SPRINKLES MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH MID-DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD PERHAPS STUCK IN THE 40S.

BY TONIGHT...STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
INTO THE DAKOTAS. A COLD RAIN LOOKS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT...WITH RAIN
CHANCES PRIMARILY IN AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND THE HIGHEST
QPF ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MO RIVER. FAIRLY CONSISTENT MODEL
CONSENSUS OF QPF AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

SHORT WAVE SHOULD MOVE ON EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY FRIDAY WITH THE EARLY
MORNING RAIN THREAT SOUTHEAST ENDING IN THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. LIFT WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE COULD PRODUCE GREATER
DYNAMIC COOLING AND BRING UP THE PROSPECT OF A FEW RECORD EARLY
SNOWFLAKES...BUT AS IT APPEARS...COOLING WILL NOT BE ENOUGH SO
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AS LIGHT RAIN. DECENT CLEARING SHOULD THEN
TAKE PLACE FROM THE NORTHWEST GIVEN THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL LIKELY MAKE IT ONLY INTO THE
MID 50S DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE.

MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING
UP THE PROSPECT OF SOME PATCHY FROST IN OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PRETTY MUCH AS WE CARRIED IT EARLIER.
WILL ALSO KEEP IT OUT OF THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WITH SLIGHT LOW
LEVEL WARMING BEGINNING THERE AHEAD OF APPROACHING WESTERN
CANADIAN/MONTANA SHORT WAVE. TIME LEFT AND SUBTLE FACTORS AFFECTING
THE EXPECTED COOLING STILL PRECLUDES A MARGINAL FROST ADVISORY IN
THE EAST FOR NOW.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEAK SHORT WAVE SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH A MINIMUM OF CLOUD INCREASE OWING TO THE LACK
OF MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS. THEREFORE THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE FAIRLY
CLEAR WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND...THAT IS...TEMPERATURES STILL
BELOW NORMAL JUST NOT AS MUCH. WILL GO FOR AM MARGINAL CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WANING TO THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...AS
THE NEXT PASSING SHORT WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WARM
ADVECTION...AND STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE SOUTH AS UPPER
RIDGING STARTS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE PASSING SHORT WAVE
SHOULD HOLD THE UPPER RIDGING...STRONGER WARM ADVECTION...AND ANY
PRECIPITATION AT BAY FOR A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE A THREAT STARTS TO
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARMING STARTS TO PICK UP
MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

LOW STRATUS AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY. THIS CEILING MAY
OCCASIONALLY LIFT TO LOW END VFR DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WITH
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS REDEVELOPING WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
LATE TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THURSDAY...STRATUS WILL FLUCTUATE AT THE
MVFR AND LOW END VFR HEIGHTS THROUGH 18 TO 00Z. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OR LESS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...



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