Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 130338
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1038 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH THE SURFACE
WITH DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA.  HAVE REDUCED MENTION DOWN TO
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING LEADING TO GREAT RADIATIVE
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.  HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY ALONG AND EAST
OF I-29 WHERE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S.
RETURN FLOW STARTS TO CREEP TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...SO
REALLY DID NOT WANT TO TAKE THE ADVISORY TOO FAR TO THE WEST.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN AURORA DISPLAY OVERNIGHT...BUT THINK
THE LIGHT FROM THE MOON WILL MAKE IT QUITE DIFFICULT TO SEE.

WITH A LITTLE MIXING...SHOULD SEE WINDS REALLY INCREASE IN THE MID
AND LATE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL BE WARMER IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

AFTER AN UNEVENTFUL SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTS OUR
AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS NOW
BACKED OFF ON THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY DURING THE DAY PERIOD...THE NAM NEVER DID HAVE IT IN THERE.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE PROGGED...EVEN ON THE GFS
NEAR AND ABOVE 800MB...AND STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA...BELIEVE THAT THE GFS IS UNDERDONE WITH QPF
POTENTIAL. THEREFORE SIDED CLOSER WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF AS BOTH
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAINFALL...
THEN INCREASING IT SUNDAY EVENING. ONE THING TO WORRY ABOUT IS IF
CLOUD COVER BECOMES THICK SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LET ALONE IF IT RAINS
OR NOT...FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOUGH TO REACH. ALSO
NOTE THAT A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS OOZING WEST AND SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON...AND
STAYED CLEAR OF THE BIAS CORRECTED VALUES WHICH WERE WARMER THAN
RAW MODEL CONSENSUS VALUES.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT VIA OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
LEAVING A SUNNY AND PLEASANT MONDAY TO FOLLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S. AFTER THAT THERE IS REALLY NOT A LOT GOING ON. A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THIS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME
POSSIBLE TROUGHING FOLLOWING BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON
FRIDAY. WITH A STOUT SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK...
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE BACK UP IN THE 70 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED
AT 1038 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BECOME BLUSTERY OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW...GUSTING 20
TO 30 KTS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR SDZ039-040-055-
     056-062-067-071.

MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097-098.

IA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ001>003-
     012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CHENARD



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