705
FXUS64 KFWD 291047
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
547 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Patchy dense fog has developed across almost all of North and
Central Texas this morning. The visibility in most of our Central
Texas population centers along the I-35 corridor have improved,
but rural portions the counties are likely still experiencing
dense fog. Due to this, we have not cancelled the Dense Fog
Advisory for any counties with the morning forecast update.

Rainfall over the weekend has resulted in several rivers east of
I-35 rising into flood stage. The most notable rises are along
the Trinity River, where we currently have flood warnings active
from Dallas through Long Lake/Oakwood. Multiple locations near or
along the Trinity River are expected to rise to Moderate flood
stage.

For more information regarding area river heights and active river
flood warnings please visit: water.noaa.gov/wfo/FWD

Bonnette

Previous Discussion:
/Monday and Tuesday/

Thunderstorms have finally exited our area. A cluster of training
storms continues across Southeast Texas--just south our forecast
area--so many of our southeasternmost counties will hear plenty of
thunder through the pre-dawn hours. While most of this activity
will remain to our south, a few storms could clip our southernmost
counties before sunrise. In the wake of the wet weekend and the
lack of a dry airmass moving through, fog is expected across most
of the area this morning. We have a local rule of thumb coined the
"shortwave rule" that states when rain falls, there is no cold
front or other dry airmass passage, and light winds/clear skies
are forecast overnight, fog will occur. Patchy dense fog has
already developed just east of the cirrus blow off from the
aforementioned storms. Expect the fog and very low stratus bank
to expand through the morning and cover most of our area during
the Monday morning commute.

We have issued a Dense Fog advisory for much of our forecast area
through 9 AM this morning. It is pretty rare for our office to
issue a Dense Fog Advisory in late April. In fact, we have only
issued 6 Dense Fog Advisories on or after this date since 2006.
Visibility will improve within an couple hours of sunrise, with
rapidly improving conditions by the mid to late morning.

Mostly clear skies and light winds are expected this afternoon
with highs in the mid 80s. Despite it already feeling muggy,
south flow will return tonight and draw warm/moist air north.
Stratus will creep north early Tuesday and should should dissipate
in the late morning. Tomorrow`s afternoon highs should be a couple
degrees higher than today, however the extra moisture will result
in heat index values peaking in the upper 80s to low 90s. Most
will be dry, but there is a 20% chance of an isolated warm
advection shower across the southeast. A dryline will develop well
to our west that should initiate thunderstorms late in the day
near Childress. There is a less than 10% chance that a storm will
be able to continue long enough into the evening to move into our
forecast area late Tuesday.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 334 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024/
Update:

No major changes were made to the previous forecast, therefore,
the discussion below remains valid. Another foggy early morning
is expected east of I-35 Tuesday night into sunrise Wednesday.

Periodic rain chances will continue through much of the week with
the greatest rain potential arriving on Thursday. Strong to
severe storms will be possible, but timing/location remain
uncertain at this time.

Rain chances will continue through the weekend, however, a
complete washout is not expected. Slightly cooler temperatures are
expected, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s and 60s.

Hernandez

Previous Discussion:
/Monday Night Onward/

Quiet weather will continue Monday night into Tuesday, but a weak
disturbance aloft will help ignite thunderstorms along the
dryline Tuesday afternoon and evening. The dryline will be located
over the Big Country, where convective initiation should take
place. Storms would likely end up being isolated in nature thanks
to the presence of a strong capping inversion, but a storm or two
may still reach severe thresholds somewhere west of I-35.

Better storm chances will begin on Wednesday as an upper trough
approaches from the northwest. Height falls in advance of the
trough will lead to more thunderstorm development along the
dryline. A cap will still be in place, but and added upper level
support should help convection overcome the cap, leading to
scattered storms across mainly the western half of the region
Wednesday evening. A secondary swath of showers and storms may
enter the southeast counties Wednesday afternoon as an active
sea/gulf breeze enters from the south. The better severe threat
will exist with the dryline convection (west of I-35), while a
lower threat will accompany the seabreeze storms.

The upper trough will drop southeast through the Southern Plains
Thursday through Thursday night. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop by Thursday afternoon, and may grow
upscale into a linear MCS while becoming focused along an
attendant cold front. Strong to severe storms will be possible as
activity pushes southeast through the region Thursday night, with
precipitation exiting to the southeast Friday morning with the
front.

Another lull in the active weather pattern will take place on
Friday, which should actually end up being a nice post-frontal
day with drier air and highs in the 70s. Clouds will rapidly
increase on Saturday, however, as a shortwave embedded in the
subtropical jet approaches from the west. The front will again
become focus for convective development as it lifts north as a
warm front on Saturday. The severe weather potential is
uncertain, however, as it may become dependent on how rapidly the
warm sector arrives. Whatever the case, rain chances will continue
into next Sunday, followed by warmer and drier weather to start
the following week as ridging develops aloft.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

The D10 TAF sites have been socked in with 1/4 SM visibility and
ceilings at 100 ft since about 07Z. These conditions are expected
to continue for the next 2-3 hours. Conditions should start to
improve after 13Z, but LIFR is expected through at least 15Z. The
TAFs may be a bit optimistic with the quick improvement, but we
will have a better idea regarding this after data from our RAOB
data comes in after the top of the hour so we can assess how thick
the stratus deck is. A thicker stratus deck would result in a
slower improvement than what is currently in the forecast. Either
way, the trend should start with visibility improving to a low
stratus deck, then the stratus should lift and scatter in the mid
to late morning. All locations should improve to VFR by ~16-17Z.

After the morning fog burns off, great flying weather is expected
today with light winds and mostly clear skies. Prevailing south
flow will return late in the afternoon.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    84  64  85  69  83 /   0   0   0  10  20
Waco                83  64  83  68  82 /   0   0  10   5  30
Paris               81  60  83  66  83 /   0   0   0   5  30
Denton              83  63  84  68  82 /   0   0   0  10  20
McKinney            82  62  83  68  82 /   0   0   0   5  20
Dallas              85  64  85  69  84 /   0   0   5   5  20
Terrell             82  62  83  68  82 /   0   0   5   5  30
Corsicana           84  63  85  70  84 /   0   0  10   5  30
Temple              85  64  85  69  83 /   0   0  10   5  30
Mineral Wells       85  62  86  68  83 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for TXZ091>095-
101>107-116>123-130>135-141>148-156>161.

&&

$$