000
FXUS63 KGID 190933
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
433 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool/chilly conditions prevail next few days, which will
  include the potential for frost/freeze conditions, especially
  Sat night into Sun morning.

- Weak upper disturbance will bring light rain/snow chances
  (20-50%) to areas mainly W/SW/S of the Tri-Cities tonight into
  Sat morning. However, there`s a less than 10-20% chance that
  total moisture exceeds 0.1".

- More mild and seasonable temperatures return on Mon, with
  mainly 60s and 70s forecast for most of the new work week.

- Rain chances return as early as Sun night - Mon, and continue
  off and on mid to late week. Overall highest chances (30-50%)
  currently forecast Mon night and Wed night into Thu.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Main forecast concern in the short term revolves around some
rain/snow chances tonight into Saturday AM, and potential frost
and/or freeze conditions. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for
far N portions of the CWA this morning as these areas remain
relatively cloud free with lgt winds. As such, ODX sits at 30F
as of 09Z. Some 32-33 deg readings are occurring as far S as
the I-80 corridor, but with incr mid to high clds and lgt W/SW
flow think these areas will be mostly 32-38F. Arrival of clds
and dew points in the mid to upper 20s should stave off
widespread frost, as well...so no changes planned to current
headline. Temperatures later today will likely be quite similar
to yesterday with mostly 50s, but perhaps some low 60s far S/SE.
There won`t be nearly as much sunshine as yesterday, but at
least the winds should be lighter and help offset the increased
cloud cover. Can`t rule out a few sprinkles from time to time,
but felt it was too minor/transient to warrant formal mention.

Models are in decent agreement showing a weak upper level
disturbance and our next chance for light rain/snow showers
moving in tonight and continuing into Sat AM. Lift will be aided
by RER of mid/upper level jet streak as well as modest
frontogenesis, but overall moisture and deep/sustained lift is
lacking. Most guidance keeps any measurable pcpn mainly SW of
the forecast area, though the recent 00Z/03Z HRRR/RAP indicated
a more bullish, eastern extent. Ensemble guidance suggests these
are outlier solutions at this time with only very low chances
around 10-20% that total moisture will exceed a tenth of an
inch. Have pared back extent and magnitude of PoPs these
periods, and it`s possible day shift may be able to lower more.

Lows tonight are forecast to be a couple/few deg colder than
this morning, suggesting a higher risk of frost/freeze
conditions. However, the persistent cloud cover and fairly
steady Nrly breeze around 10 MPH argue against much in the way
real widespread frost. Consensus amongst surrounding offices was
to wait for current headlines to expire then allow day shift to
reissue as needed - which could be further S into Tri-Cities.
Overall coldest night of this stretch, and greatest risk for
frost/freeze conditions, looks to be Sat night into Sun AM
thanks to closer proximity to sfc ridge axis/light winds and
generally decr cloud cover. Latest version of forecast builder
generates frost even into N KS zones, so looking like more
widespread headlines will be needed for this period. Lesser
cloud cover and modest W/SW breeze should make for a more
pleasant Sun, esp. for the aftn as highs climb to 58-64F.

The rest of the forecast is generally more mild - mostly 60s and
70s, but also a bit more active. Highest chances (30-50%) for
showers/storms looks to be Mon night and again Wed night into
Thu. Mon night activity doesn`t look too concerning for severe
potential owing to lack of instability. Will have to monitor
trends for later in the week, though, as overall consensus is
for more instability and sufficient deep layer shear. Timing and
placement of pertinent features, as usual, will play key factors
in ultimate severe potential, and these simply remain too
uncertain this far out in time. Thus, not surprised with the
"predictability too low" in the latest SPC Day 4-8 outlook.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR through the period. High to mid level clouds will be on the
increase over the next 6-9 hrs, with CIGs gradually falling to
the 7-12K ft range with SCT-BKN coverage for the brunt of the
daytime hrs Fri into Fri eve. Winds are starting off lgt and
vrbl now, but should transition to SW-W 5-7kt by dawn, then
continue to veer to NW-N Fri aftn-eve at around 8-11kt. Nrly
winds 5-10kt are likely Fri night. Confidence: High.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041-048-
     049.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies