Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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859 FXUS64 KHUN 091902 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 202 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 The main frontal boundary is still lagging behind all the convection that pushed southeast of the area into central Alabama and Goergia earlier this morning. Some low level cumulus has formed, but looks fairly stable. Nashville`s 7 AM sounding should be fairly representative of the airmass just ahead of that front. There is a very potent cap in place between 700 700 mb and around 900 mb. This is likely very representative of the atmosphere over northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee at this time. Given expected highs this afternoon, think we would be hard pressed or any convection to overcome that cap. 7 AM BMX sounding looks a bit more impressive, but given how far south this convection has been pushed and water vaport imagery, thinking that even Cullman county is represented by the KOHX sounding more so than the BMX sounding. Therefore, not expecting much redevelopment along the front as it pushes southeast this afternoon into tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Sunday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 However, there may be wind for very low (20 to 30 percent) chances of shower and thunderstorm development south of the Tennessee River tonight (mainly in the evening), as this front pushes through the area. Particularly, in Franklin southeast into Cullman counties in Alabama. Not seeing much helicity forecast by models, but moderate to high CAPE values (1000 to 2500 J/KG) and steep lapse rates (6.5 to 8.0 degrees/km) are forecast by most models with decent DCAPE around 1000 J/KG. So a severe thunderstorm or two producing damaging winds or large hail cannot be ruled out. Not expecting any watches due to mainly isolated coverage of thunderstorm activity expected. Some cloud cover is expected this evening with this activity before cloud should dissipate. Clear skies and light winds are expected and should enable lows to drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Expect some patchy fog could occur with decent radiational cooling late. A need dry and quiet weather pattern establishes itself Friday through the weekend. Some cooler buy very pleasant conditions are expected on Friday and Saturday. Highs will drop a bit into the mid to upper 70s with lows dropping into the upper 40s and 50s. Sunday looks a bit warmer, as upper level ridging builds back over the Tennessee Valley. Highs should climb back to around 80 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 A partially closed upr low in the West CONUS will be ejected eastward as heights begin to fall in the northern Rockies from late Sunday night into Monday. Moisture advection/ascent ahead of the pending upr trough could begin to bring rain to the area as early as Monday morning. Instability will increase gradually on Monday, but forecast thermal profiles just appear marginally unstable at this time, limiting updraft strength and severe potential. This trough may become partially closed again as it makes its way eastward across the OH/TN Valley regions, with chances for showers/thunderstorms continuing into Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 VFR conditions are expected much of the period. A brief period of MVFR VSBYS are expected towards daybreak between 08Z and 12Z, as winds become fairly light and little cloud cover is expected. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KTW SHORT TERM....KTW LONG TERM....KTW AVIATION...KTW