587
FXUS63 KICT 071733
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1233 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for elevated storms Wednesday morning across southeast
Kansas, some of them could become strong or severe

- Dry and quiet weather to prevail for Thursday thru the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Quiet weather conditions will prevail today with westerly winds and
drier air overspreading the region. Meanwhile current satellite
water vapor imagery shows a deep upper level low pressure system
continuing to spin over the Dakotas. Models show an embedded short
wave rotating around the southern periphery of this low pressure
system across Nebraska and Kansas for late tonight heading into
Wednesday. This upper short wave induces a strengthening low level
jet and rapid moisture transport over eastern Kansas into a decent
700mb baroclinic zone late tonight/Wednesday morning. This
signal combined with steep mid-level lapse rates,decent elevated
CAPE, and favorable 1-6km shear could spark of severe elevated
convection around daybreak Wednesday morning over far southeast
Kansas or locations just to the northeast in western Missouri
which is supported by increasing HREF model probability of 4hr
max Refl paintball. This upper wave will push another frontal
boundary southward across the area on Wednesday where storms
will re-develop ahead of this front which looks to affect areas
mainly east of southeast Kansas.

Dry and quiet weather conditions look to prevail for Thursday into
the weekend as surface high pressure builds over the region. Long
range models are hinting at next chance of storms possibly affecting
the region on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid
period. Occasionally gusty southwest winds will develop this
afternoon across central Kansas. Moisture advection will occur
across southeast Kansas late tonight ahead of a weak cold front.
The main impact to central Kansas will be a wind shift with a
period of high clouds. For southeast Kansas and the KCNU
terminal, mid-level bases/cigs are expected toward 12z with
widely scattered elevated convection possible during the
morning hours on Wednesday. A period of low level wind shear is
also expected across south central Kansas tonight in vicinity of
the frontal passage and across southeast Kansas early Wednesday
morning.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...KED