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000
FXUS63 KICT 171746
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1246 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Shower/thunderstorm potential this evening through early Thursday,
  with a conditional threat for severe weather.

* Turning much cooler Thursday, with strong/gusty north winds. Below
  average temperatures persisting through the weekend.

* Mostly light precipitation chances Friday night-Saturday
  night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Rapid low-level moisture return is anticipated today, as lee
troughing deepens ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the
north. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees are already
noted early this morning near the Red River. This rapid moisture
return and associated increasing destabilization could be a driver
for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across mainly south-
central, east-central, and southeast Kansas this evening, in
vicinity of a weak surface trough/warm front. The main question
driving these chances is the quality/magnitude of this low-level
moisture/instability. The RAP, HRRR and a handful of other models
are probably over-mixing the boundary layer and thus a bit underdone
with the moisture return. On the other side of the coin, the NAM is
probably a bit bullish with the moisture/instability. A happy medium
is probably somewhere between the GFS and NAM.

Large scale forcing and surface convergence are both only modest at
best, casting doubt on thunderstorm initiation and coverage.
However, the rapid moistening/destabilization amidst increasing low
to mid-level warm advection may be enough to initiation isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms. If this occurs, the thermodynamic
and kinematic environments are favorable for supercells capable of
all severe hazards before about midnight. Thereafter, a building EML
from the southwest should shift better thunderstorm chances mainly
north-northeast of the forecast area, within a region of strong low
to mid-level warm advection.

Otherwise, a strong cold front will blast south through the region
tonight through Thursday morning, with falling temperatures and
strong north winds in its wake. Wind gusts will likely push 35-40
mph at times. May see some fast-moving showers/storms and/or drizzle
along and just behind this front Thursday morning over east-central
and southeast KS, with the potential for a few strong storms through
mid-morning.

With upper troughing over the northern CONUS and anomalous Canadian
high pressure settling south over Mid-America, we`re expecting below
average temperatures through the weekend. Forecast highs in the 50s
to low 60s and overnight lows in the 30s-40s will be common. Mostly
cloudy skies should limit frost potential over cooler central and
north-central KS locations, although some light frost can`t be ruled
out early Sunday with temperatures in the low-mid 30s and at least
partially clearing skies. Additionally, there is a chance for some
light precipitation Friday night through Saturday night as a mid-
level baroclinic zone sets up over the region, although any rainfall
amounts should be fairly light.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR conditions expected during the afternoon and evening, as
surface winds switch around to the southeast with an increase
over central Kansas. Thunderstorm chances will be possible this
evening but expected to be more isolated so not enough coverage
to mention for TAF sites. A cold front will slide southward late
tonight with a developing line of showers and storms expected
over mainly eastern/southeast Kansas which could impact CNU site
Thursday morning. Could also see a period of low level wind
shear before the cold front sweeps southward late tonight along
with low clouds in MVFR category.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...CDJ