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000
FXUS61 KILN 201321
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
921 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the area through the weekend and
persist into early next week. Temperatures will be below normal
over the weekend and then start to moderate on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure will nose into the Ohio Valley from the
west today. This will help keep us dry and seasonably cool with
afternoon highs ranging from the lower 50s northwest to the
lower 60s in the southeast. Skies will be mostly sunny with
some high clouds at times along with the potential for some
diurnal cu across our north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Although high pressure ridging will remain across the Ohio
Valley tonight, a few mid level systems, one moving into the
southeast U.S., and another digging into the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley into the base of the aforementioned mid level trough,
will result in a gradual increase in cloud cover overnight.
Temperatures will drop into the 30s region wide. However, the
increase in clouds, along with some persistent sustained winds
from the west/northwest between 5 and 10 knots, should limit the
formation of frost. However, our far northeast forecast area
may reach freezing overnight due to thicker clouds making it
there last. Based on HREF probabilities and in collaboration
with surrounding offices, have hoisted a freeze watch for four
counties (Hardin, Union, Delaware, and Licking) where 32 degrees
may occur. Later data will dictate whether this gets upgraded
to a warning or gets canceled should forecast temperatures
change (become slightly warmer).

On Sunday, the mid level disturbance will exit off to the
southeast, gradually taking mid/high level clouds with it.
However, cooler air aloft, and with some moisture remaining at
850 mb, will likely result in some diurnal cumulus clouds which
may be enough in coverage to result in partly cloudy skies. It
will remain cool with highs ranging from the mid to the upper
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds overhead from the west Sunday night into
Monday. Calm winds and clear skies should allow favorable
radiational cooling Sunday night which should allow lows to drop
into the 30s. At least patchy frost frost is possible across
the area. High rise into the lower 60s areawide on Monday under
mostly sunny skies.

By Monday night, surface high pressure moves southeast and an
upper level vorticity max along with a surface low moves towards
the region. Winds increase out of the southwest Monday night
into Tuesday ahead of the disturbance. Temperatures, moisture,
and rain chances rise through Thursday evening before a cold
front attached to the disturbance pushes through the area.
Thunder chances remain fairly low since instability likely
remains limited to non-existent.

Rain chances and temperatures drop after FROPA Tuesday night
bringing the return of below average temperatures and dry
conditions through Friday. Frost may be possible once again on
Wednesday night. Temperatures moderate by the weekend when
southerly winds redevelop and rain chances return.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For today, a broad mid level trough will remain across the
Great Lakes, southeast Canada, and New England. Meanwhile, at
the surface, high pressure will extend east across the Ohio
Valley. Scattered high clouds will predominate, although a FEW-
SCT diurnal cumulus clouds may develop near/north of the
northern terminals in the afternoon. It will become gusty after
14Z. Winds from the northwest between 10 and 15 knots will gust
between 15 and 25 knots. Gusty winds will begin to subside after
23Z as diurnal cooling allows the atmosphere to decouple.

For tonight, mid level energy will move east across the
southeast U.S. while an embedded disturbance digs southeast into
the central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Some CAA stratocumulus
clouds will creep in from the northwest. Meanwhile, mid and
high level moisture from the southern system is expected to
enhance late ahead of the northern disturbance. Thus, a mix of
stratocumulus clouds (northwest) and mid/high clouds are
forecast. Winds will settle down and will range from northwest
to north around 5 knots.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities possible
Tuesday. Gusty winds to 30 knots possible on Tuesday. MVFR
ceilings may linger into Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     OHZ026-045-046-056.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Hickman