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000
FXUS63 KILX 191546
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1046 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy west-northwest winds develop this afternoon with gusts of
  20-30 mph.

- Morning low temperatures through the weekend will bottom out in
  the 30s, posing a threat to sensitive vegetation.

- Temperatures return back to near normal values by early next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

More mid level clouds have spread eastward into portions of
central IL at late morning, with skies becoming partly to mostly
cloudy during late morning, so increased sky cover grids
accordingly. Radar mosaic shows narrow band of light echo returns
along I-72 and north of I-70 in thicker mid level cloud band with
bases 10-12k ft so could be sprinkles. Temperatures are currently
in the upper 40s and lower 50s, and highs in the upper 50s look
on track with Lawrence county around 60F. NNW to NW winds 12-20
mph with gusts 20 to 30 mph to add a chill to the air today.

07

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Surface analysis early this morning has a surface low entering the
eastern Great Lakes Region with an expansive area of ridging spread
from the northern Plains to the middle Mississippi Valley. Surface
ridging will control the weather pattern through the weekend,
keeping things dry and cool. Overnight lows the next several nights
will bottom out in the 30s. Light winds and clear skies each night
will pose a threat for frost development, with the best chances
being both Sunday and Monday mornings. With the growing season in
full swing, this will pose a threat to any sensitive vegetation.
Frost/Freeze headlines will likely be needed, possibly as early as
tonight.

The surface high will work into the eastern CONUS early next week as
a low pressure system enters the Great Lakes Region. Southerly
return flow on the backside of the low/ahead of the next system will
bring temperatures back to near normal or slightly above normal for
the start of the new week. Precipitation chances hold off until
Tuesday when a cold front sags south through the area. Limited
amounts of moisture will make it this far north ahead of the arrival
of the front, limiting instability. Upper jet placement may support
a few storms with FROPA, but the threat for severe weather appears
minimal at this point.

Mid-level heights rise by mid to late next week as upper ridging
spreads over the Midwest states. Temperatures will gradually climb
back above normal late in the week with the Climate Prediction
Center highlighting above normal temperatures both on the 6-10 day
and 8-14 day outlooks.

NMA

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR conditions will be seen through the TAF period. West-northwest
winds become breezy late this morning with gusts up to 25 kt then
turn light overnight.

NMA

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$