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000
FXUS63 KILX 120212
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
912 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will re-develop
  this afternoon and sweep eastward through evening, then taper
  off overnight. Additional rainfall should generally be under a
  quarter inch, but a few spots of higher amounts are possible.

- Breezy winds will continue through Friday afternoon, as
  northwesterly winds gust 30-40 mph at times.

- A warm-up is expected this weekend, with highs around 80 degrees
  by Sunday.

- A storm system over the central US early next week could produce
  severe thunderstorms and strong southerly winds, most likely on
  Tuesday in central IL. There is an 80% chance of gusts over 40
  mph.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Scattered showers will continue across central, eastern, and
southeastern IL into the overnight hours. Gusty winds will also
continue out of the northwest as the sfc gradient remain tight
behind the deep low pressure area over extreme northern OH. The
gusty winds will also continue into tomorrow. Besides adjustments
to pops/wx and removal of any thunder mention...the rest of the
forecast looks fine. An updated should be out shortly.

Auten

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Additional scattered showers will continue tonight, mainly northeast
of a Galesburg to Marshall line, as another couple of shortwave
features rotate through the area. This shortwave will also be
responsible for tightening pressure gradients and keeping brisk
northwesterly winds of 15-20 mph with gusts 30-40 mph going
through the night and into Friday. High pressure will build into
the area Friday night into Saturday, bringing clearing skies, dry
weather, and a decrease in winds, as well as beginning a warming
trend. Temperatures should max out in the lower to mid 60s Friday,
followed by mid 70s on Saturday. As the ridge passes to the east
Sunday, southerly flow will continue bringing highs to around 80
and dewpoints close to 60. A shortwave will pass by to the north
Saturday night, which could cause a cold front to stall out as far
south as central IL Sunday. At this point, it appears
precipitation chances are minimal with this feature with weak
forcing, however several hundred J/kg CAPE or more are forecast
and it could trigger some thunderstorms depending on timing.

A deep trough ejecting out of the Southwest US into the Plains
Monday looks to affect central IL by Tuesday. A warm sector with
well over an inch of precipitable water should set up over central
IL and vicinity, likely causing over 1000 J/Kg CAPE, with strong
winds aloft promoting strong shear. These ingredients could
produce a period of severe thunderstorms as the cold front
approaches from the west, unless the system heads significantly
off from its current forecast track into the upper Midwest Tuesday
night. In addition, strong winds gusting to 45 mph in the warm
sector appear possible Tuesday. This system may not be the last in
potential impactful systems next work week.

Temperatures look to rise above 80 again Monday, but dip at least
a little into the 70s for Tuesday through Midweek.

37

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Scattered
showers will continue this evening and probably last into the
overnight hours. Have VCSH for all sites until morning. Tomorrow
morning, skies should scatter out during the morning hours and
then clear out during the afternoon. Winds will be northwest
through the period with gust of 25-26kts tonight through overnight
and then increase tomorrow with gusts of 28-32kts.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$