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000
FXUS64 KJAN 141224 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
724 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 448 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Today and Tonight:

High pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and an upper-
level ridge over the High Plains will still be the dominant
players in our weather pattern for today, however a compact
shortwave trough sliding overtop the ridge will generate more
mid-level cloud cover across our forecast area to start the day.
Expect this to translate eastward through the day and still allow
for temperatures to climb into the mid 80s this afternoon.
Increasing humidity overnight tonight increase chances for fog
close to the Gulf Coast and into the Pine Belt region of
southeastern Mississippi. Will continue to monitor trends in the
guidance, but wouldn`t be out of the question to see a Dense Fog
Advisory later this evening in those areas. /NF/

Monday through the Saturday Night:

Not much change has been made in the forecast for the long term
period. Early morning global guidance continue to highlight a
longwave ridge that will start to slowly migrate eastward across the
central CONUS as a sfc high slowly shifts east across the Lower
Mississippi Valley. This will help keep weather conditions quiet for
our forecast area bringing dry conditions and warming temperatures
through Monday. Beginning on Tuesday, the mean ridge axis will start
to shift to the east. At the same time, a 990mb low pressure system
will begin to push east across the central CONUS. The combination of
the shifting ridge axis and the eastward propagating sfc low will
allow for a cold front to move into the northern portions of our
forecast area. Because of this, southerly flow aloft will push gulf
moisture and instability towards our area. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible primarily across northern parts of
our CWA Tuesday into Wednesday along with the possibility of gusty
winds. The best chance for strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon
and evening will be near the moisture and instability axis along the
front. A slight risk area covers the far northwest parts of the
Delta region. A Limited threat of gradient winds was also added for
the western half of our area on Tuesday as the pressure gradient
tightens.

Lingering moisture south of the front could support a few storms on
Wednesday. A much stronger cold front will move into the area on
Thursday as the sfc low shifts northward towards the Great Lakes.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will be higher this time across more
of our forecast area. Early morning ensembles continue to highlight
sufficient moisture in place along with increasing deep layer shear,
increasing mid-level lapse rates, the potential for increasing CAPE
values, and PWATs near 1.50 in ahead of the cold front, the
potential for severe storms will be possible somewhere in the
region. Confidence has started to increase slightly as new model
data has started to come in, however there is still some uncertainty
regarding the location of the front. Nevertheless, we will continue
to monitor the potential for severe weather as the time frame gets
close and forecast confidence increases. Another round of isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday and Sunday
as the slow moving cold front inches further south towards the Gulf
Coast. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions to start the TAF period at all sites, but there is
an increasing chance for MVFR or lower conditions with patchy BR
or FG near KHBG and KPIB after 09Z Monday. Winds will gust up to
around 20 kts through 00Z Monday at most sites. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       85  57  83  64 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      85  54  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     84  59  83  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   85  55  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       84  59  82  65 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    84  62  80  66 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     83  60  82  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/CR