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000
FXUS64 KJAN 171745 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1245 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 956 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Mid morning surface analysis had a nearly stationary frontal
boundary across our northern zones from near Bastrop, Louisiana to
Columbus, Mississippi. Local radars showed mostly light showers
along the boundary but a couple of storms were noted in our
northeast that will move into Alabama within the next hour or two.
This boundary will sag a little farther south today and remain the
focus for additional shower development. None of the convection is
expected to become severe. Due to the rain chances and associated
cloud cover, temperatures in our northeast will be held in the 70s
this afternoon but elsewhere temperatures are expected to top out
in the lower 80s. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Today through Tonight...

Today: Synoptic & sfc pattern early this morning consists of
eastward building mean ridge at the sfc & aloft, while low-level
return flow will continue today. Water vapor/RAP imagery indicate
vertically stacked cold core low aloft/sfc low is centered in the
Mid West & progged to move into the Great Lakes by this aftn.
Upper low will weaken, leading to sfc low losing some punch in the
Great Lakes. Weak frontal zone is expected to swing into the
region, bringing some scattered light rain & storm chances areas
mainly north of the I-20 corridor. Regional radars indicate some
radar returns moving into the northwest ArkLaMiss Delta & will
spread to the east-southeast through the morning to aftn hours.
Can`t rule out an isolated strong storm or two, especially in the
Hwy 82 corridor (main focus in Golden Triangle) but with narrow
time window & light low-level flow, confidence remains too low to
mention in the HWO graphics. Southerly sfc winds will persist, but
lighter than yesterday. Seasonably warm highs are expected, 3-5
deg. F above normal in the upper 70s north of I-20 where
rain/storms reside to low 80 elsewhere.

Tonight: As the cold core lifts northeast across the Great Lakes &
the Canadian border, quasi-zonal flow aloft will set up across the
region. Any lingering rain showers should wind down around or just
before midnight. With continued southerly return flow of
warmth/moisture, widespread clouds & low stratus can be expected
again. Patchy fog is possible in the Pine Belt in southeast MS
overnight. Seasonably warm lows, some 5-10 deg. F above normal, are
expected in the mid 60s east of the I-55 corridor to mid-upper 60s
along & west of the I-55 corridor. /DC/

Thursday through next Tuesday...A weak frontal boundary will stall
and quickly washout across the forecast area as we begin the period
Thursday. Under zonal flow aloft, weak ascent riding east along the
boundary will allow for isolated to scattered showers and storms to
develop along to near the front, mainly across northern portions of
the CWA, Thursday afternoon into the evening. While wind shear
leaves a bit to be desire, there will be some decent instability
across mainly northern portions of the area Thursday afternoon,
along with some marginally steep mid-level lapse rates.  As a
result, an isolated severe storm can`t be ruled out during this
timeframe.  Damaging wind gusts and up to quarter size hail will be
possible with the most intense storms.

Overnight Thursday into Friday, A slightly stronger disturbance will
push a cold front southeast into and through the CWA.  This will
again maintain some rain chances across mainly northern portions of
the CWA.  However, Saturday into Sunday, yet another disturbance
will shift east across the region under zonal flow.  This will
result in decent chances for showers, along with some isolated
thunder, across the forecast area Saturday into Sunday as cooler
drier conditions will advect into the region.

As this system exits the region late Sunday night into Monday,
northerly winds will persist as high pressure to the northwest
builds into the forecast area.  Quiet weather and drier air will
exist across the region Monday into Tuesday.  Winds will steadily
become more easterly Monday night and southerly on Tuesday, with
slightly warmer conditions expected on Tuesday. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

An isolated TSRA sw of GTR will come in vcty of GTR through 19Z.
Otherwise, MVFR cigs were still being observed at the TAF sites
and wl take until after 19Z before improving to VFR. VFR
conditions will prevail this evening and continue until after 09Z
when MVFR cigs are expected to redevelop areawide. Occasional IFR
cigs are psbl 11Z-13Z. MVFR cigs wl improve to VFR by the end of
the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       80  67  83  66 /  30  10  20  10
Meridian      82  65  85  65 /  30  10  10  10
Vicksburg     81  68  83  66 /  20  10  20  10
Hattiesburg   84  66  85  65 /  10   0   0   0
Natchez       83  67  83  66 /  10  10  10   0
Greenville    80  69  82  66 /  20  10  30  50
Greenwood     79  67  83  67 /  40  10  30  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/19/22