478
FXUS64 KJAN 031145 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
645 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 409 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Today and Tonight: Continued warmer than normal temperatures along
with decent rain chances are expected through tonight. A rather weak
surface ridge will continue to nose across our CWA from the east
while the southern branch of the jet stream continues overhead
resulting in southwest flow aloft. This will maintain our warm moist
airmass with PWATs greater than an inch and a half along with mid to
upper 60F dewpoints. Subtle disturbances within the southwest flow
aloft will combine with our moist airmass and daytime heating to
result in scattered to numerous coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. The greatest coverage will be in our west and across
our north. Although there will be a distinct diurnal trend to the
convection, rain chances will linger tonight especially in the
north. /22/

This Weekend: Isolated to scattered rain and storm chances will
continue throughout this weekend, expect them to be in the mid-range
(30-50%). An upper-level low moving east/southeast will send a cold
front towards our area, nearing early Saturday morning with it being
just west in the high plains. Storms and showers in the high plains
will be strong and linear along the front, losing strength as they
move east downstream, mostly dissipating by the time they reach our
area. Remnant storm activity has the possibility of redevelopment in
our area as heating occurs and instability increases by mid-day.

Next week: By next week our weather pattern evolves into the typical
western trough to eastern ridge pattern as temperatures will be
abnormally hot. Southwesterly flow and surface ridging will help a
strong surface high build into the ArkLaMiss region. Temperatures
will be at risk of nearing record high temps for the month of May as
they could be as high as the low to mid 90s range, this will be our
first taste of summer-like temperatures. The next chance of rain
will be the end of the workweek. Upper level troughing in the
western plains will become negatively tilted and provide a source of
multiple disturbances through late week. As a front pushes down into
the region it is possible for some strong to severe storms to form
along the front. This event is possible however confidence isn`t
very high at this time as there is a good degree of uncertainty this
far out in the forecast. /KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR conditions were observed across the north at 1130Z while IFR
conditions were observed cntrl and LIFR conditions were observed
se. These conditions wl improve by 15Z but and area of TSRA wl
move over GLH and then GWO bringing reduced conditions. Elsewhere,
sct-numerous TSRA/SHRA wl develop and affect TAF sites during the
aftn. VFR conditions are expected to prevail after 00Z Sat until
after 08Z. After 08Z MVFR/IFR cigs wl develop at most TAF sites
and continue through the end of the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       82  65  86  66 /  50  30  30  20
Meridian      85  64  88  65 /  40  30  40  10
Vicksburg     81  65  86  67 /  60  30  30  20
Hattiesburg   84  65  89  66 /  30  20  30  10
Natchez       80  65  85  66 /  70  20  20  10
Greenville    80  66  84  68 /  70  40  30  30
Greenwood     81  66  84  67 /  80  50  40  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/KP/22