355
FXUS64 KJAN 111347
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
847 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 840 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Conditions are quiet across the area this morning with NW flow and
ridging aloft. Some high clouds are noted on satellite south of
I-20. Highs will be seasonal, in the low 80s and dewpoints
comfortably in the 50s will make for a very pleasant day./SAS/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Today & Tonight..

Today: RAP/water vapor analysis indicate two shortwaves moving
through the Great Lakes & another lead wave moving off the
Carolinas, while cold core low is somewhat cutoff over the
southwestern CONUS. Shortwave ridging remains to the west over the
TX Panhandle, with dry northwesterly flow & strong subsidence
remaining as sfc high is progged to drop southeast into the Gulf
Coast region. There is some increased isentropic ascent in the 320-
325Ke (Theta E) layer, streaming broad mid-level cloudiness across
the area, especially along & south of the I-20 corridor. Where any
clouds are thin, rare views of the Aurora Borealis (Northern Lights)
are possible, driven by a "G5 Extreme" category geomagnetic storm.
Reports have come in even as far south as the Gulf Coast to even
southern FL. Seasonable lows remain possible, in the mid-upper 50s
in the northeastern half while near 60 degrees in the southwestern
half of the region. As mid-level ridge builds eastward, isentropic
ascent should decrease & clouds should thin. High temps will be
seasonable in the low-mid 80s with decreased humidity.

Tonight: As the longwave pattern shifts east, shortwave ridge will
build into the Ozarks & sfc high will shift eastward. Building moist
advection will increase PWs near normal, while slightly higher in
the southwest. Expect mid-high level cloudiness to spread across all
areas. Seasonable lows, in the low 60s southeast of the Natchez
Trace corridor to mid 60s to the northwest, are expected. /DC/

Sunday night through Friday night...A warm front will begin to push
north over the area Sunday into Sunday night and with increasing
moisture, PWATS will climb to around 1.8 inches during this time
frame. Widespread showers/storms will develop and move into the
area Sunday night and move across the area through Monday.
Currently it looks like the primary threat will be heavy rainfall
with models currently suggesting 2-3 inches, with locally higher
amounts. Will begin to advertise this potential with a limited
graphic. Currently SPC has not outlooked our area, but with decent
flow/instability a strong to isolated severe storm looks
possible and this will have to continue to be monitored. Expect
the bulk of the storms to move east of the area through morning
into the afternoon hours on Monday. We will get a bit of a break
Monday afternoon into the evening, but another short wave/cold
front will approach the area Monday evening, with another round of
storms Monday evening into the overnight hours. Showers will
continue to be possible into Tuesday, as the main upper trough
moves across the area.

High pressure and dry conditions return briefly on Wednesday
into Thursday, but yet another strong short wave is on the
horizon. As high pressure shifts east the flow will once again
turn around with increasing moisture Wednesday night into
Thursday. A series of short waves will move across the area on
Thursday, with a strong short wave/cold front moving across the
area Thursday night into Friday. More heavy rainfall and the
possibility of severe will be possible through this period./15/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR flight categories will prevail at all TAF sites the next 24
hours, with northerly winds up to 10mph & brief higher gusts.
Winds will turn more southerly & generally less than 10mph into
Sunday. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       80  63  78  63 /   0   0  10  60
Meridian      81  60  81  61 /   0   0   0  40
Vicksburg     82  64  78  63 /   0  10  10  70
Hattiesburg   83  63  82  64 /   0   0  10  50
Natchez       82  64  78  63 /   0  10  20  70
Greenville    83  66  81  65 /   0   0  10  70
Greenwood     82  63  82  63 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/15/DC