859
FXUS62 KJAX 031714
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
114 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Morning fog has dissipated and the forecast is generally on track.
Just minor tweaks to POPs for later today and tonight, with some
showers and a few thunderstorms expected in similar areas as seen
yesterday as the sea breeze penetrates inland. Activity is
expected to linger over the Suwannee River Valley area and
generally spread into interior GA overnight as a shortwave impulse
approaches the area. Only marginal elevated instability and weak
flow aloft should essentially curtail any strong or severe
potential.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 323 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Over the next couple of hours the main concern will be localized
fog. Dense fog cannot be entirely ruled out but have left it out of
the forecast at the moment with generally low confidence (< 10%
chance) of visibility lowering less than 1/4 mile. Any fog that does
occur should lift and disperse by 9 AM or earlier.

Stagnant pattern remains in place again today, featuring a stubborn
surface high and supporting ridging aloft. Overall the low level
pattern will stay consistent but an upper shortwave aloft will shove
ridging aloft eastward late this evening and overnight. Strong
subsidence and dry air should cap much of the convective attempts
along the Atlantic sea breeze this afternoon. Enhanced moisture
entering from the west in combination with an Atlantic/Gulf sea
breeze interaction may spark isolated to widely scattered storms
well inland, near and likely west of the I-75 corridor.
Instability is still on the marginal side (only progged to be
around 800-1200 J/kg), thus updrafts should be fairly weak in
nature and severe weather is unlikely.

Tonight, the aforementioned shortwave will slowly propagate across
the region resulting in increasing instability with a couple
degrees of cooling aloft. This should be supportive of showers
overnight mainly north of I-10 and a few elevated t-storms are
also feasible through the early morning hours Saturday.

Under influence of ridging aloft another seasonably warm day is
on tap this afternoon with inland locations making another push
toward 90F while coastal spots are cooled by the onshore flow with
readings registering in the mid/upper 80s. Following the warm
afternoon, temps will be mild, reading in the mid/upper 60s.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday night)

Showers and storms are expected this weekend as a series of short
waves pass over the region with sea-breeze-driven storm
developments becoming more widespread with diurnal heating. Mild
easterly-southeasterly winds will persist through the period with
the Atlantic afternoon sea breeze winds pushing inland. High
temperatures for the weekend will reach into the mid to upper 80s
with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid 60s
over inland areas and in the upper 60s and lower 70s for areas
along the coast and adjacent to the St Johns River. Patchy fog
potential will exist each morning, especially in localized areas
where heavy rain occurs with preceding afternoon convection.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Shortwave impulses continue to lift across the region through
Monday with shower and storm developments becoming more inhibited
as the week progresses due to the increased influence of upper
ridging and associated subsidence extending over Florida and
Georgia. Amid the stout upper ridge, winds turn offshore and
enhance mixing which will boost high temperatures toward record
levels as the week progresses; readings are forecast to be in the
mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR is currently prevailing at all sites. The east coast sea
breeze will continue to progress inland through this evening, with
a change in wind direction and speed for JAX/VQQ/GNV over the next
few hours. Chances for any SHRA are very low (less than 10%) at
area sites through this evening, with the best chance being at
GNV. However, probability and confidence remains too low to
include in the forecast. FG is expected to be limited Saturday
Morning, though did include a tempo for reduced vis at VQQ.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will remain anchored northeast of the local waters
through the weekend. Afternoon sea breeze development will
continue each afternoon for the next several days as high pressure
repositions further south, shifting winds toward a southeasterly
direction next week. Winds should trend offshore toward the end of
next week as a cold front approaches from the northwest.

Rip Currents: Risk will only increase to a low-end moderate level
as the Atlantic sea breeze develops during the afternoon hours.
Otherwise, low surf and light wind will keep risk low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  84  65  88 /  30  70  30  60
SSI  70  81  69  82 /  10  30  20  40
JAX  66  86  67  86 /  10  30  20  50
SGJ  67  84  68  85 /   0  20  20  40
GNV  64  89  65  88 /  10  50  20  70
OCF  65  89  66  89 /   0  40  10  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$