437
FXUS63 KJKL 131005
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
605 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather holds into the afternoon, before an approaching
  system from the Plains brings more unsettled conditions.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will be around through Wednesday
  with a lull on Thursday then renewed chances to close out the
  week.

- Near, to a little above, normal temperatures are expected
  through the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2024

08Z sfc analysis shows eastern Kentucky under the influence of
high pressure this one last night before it pulls off to the
east. This has resulted in dry conditions, light winds, and just
some high thin clouds around. Accordingly, amid decent radiational
cooling, a moderate ridge to valley temperature split has
developed. Specifically, readings vary from the mid 50s on the
hills, and more open terrain, to the mid and upper 40s in the
sheltered hollows. Meanwhile, dewpoints are running in the mid 40s
to low 50s through the area. Not much evidence of river valley
fog has been noted this night, but some cannot be ruled out before
dawn.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
excellent agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict the apex of a slight ridge at 5h moving
east out of the area this morning in advance of a closed
low trough inbound from the Central Plains. This latter feature
will only slowly approach through Tuesday while opening up enough
to release packets of energy at mid levels - passing west to east
through the state. Look for height falls and the main surge of
energy to arrive into Kentucky with this upper low later Tuesday.
The model spread is still quite small with these key features so
the NBM was used as the starting point for the short term grids
along with the incorporation of the CAMs` details for PoPs and
timing from late this afternoon through Tuesday evening.

Sensible weather features near normal mid to late spring
conditions as temperatures will flirt with 80 degrees through the
short term along with the diurnally enhanced chances of showers
and thunderstorms. Even so, the best rain chances should be this
evening and into the overnight hours as the CAMs walk an area of
convection through the JKL CWA. After a lull in the activity
Tuesday morning, additional showers and a better shot at storms
occurs that afternoon when more instability, and a fairly large
mid level lapse rate, will be available for deeper convection.
Plenty of clouds and pcpn around will limit any terrain
differences in temperatures tonight along with radiational
valley fog potential into Tuesday morning.

The main adjustments to the NBM starting point consisted of
adjusting the NBM PoPs to include CAMs details for the shower and
thunder chances from late this afternoon through Tuesday evening.
Any terrain based adjustments to temperatures were confined to
this morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 605 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2024

The long term period begins with a closed mid/upper level low over
the Ohio Valley, with a trough aligned southwest through the lower
Mississippi Valley. This system will gradually shift east through
mid-week, reaching the New England/Mid-Atlantic region by Wednesday
evening, providing a period of high PoPs (80-100%) across eastern
Kentucky from Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. Short
wave ridging will briefly take hold across the area from late
Wednesday night into Thursday, with generally dry weather
expected. Another trough axis will approach from the west by
Thursday night, ushering in the next round of unsettled weather
that will last through the end of the week. Model differences grow
after mid-week, so have stayed fairly close to the blended
guidance. Temperatures will average near to above normal through
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2024

VFR conditions will hold through the period, although clouds will
increase and lower with time, particularly for the afternoon and
evening, as a surface low approaches from the west. A few, mainly
light, showers will pass into the area from the southwest during
the evening. Winds will be light and variable through mid morning,
before increasing to between 5 and 10 kts out of the south.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN/GREIF