Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 131439
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1039 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1039 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Despite continued dry air aloft, the 12z sounding at KEY sampled
a decent moist layer up to around 850 mb. Combined with an eroded
thermal inversion, this would generally support at least isolated
shower development across our forecast area this time of year.
However, the sounding also detected relatively decoupled flow,
with gentle east to southeasterlies near the surface, light
southwesterlies above at around 925 mb, and then westerlies above
850 mb. Thus, forcing for ascent is negligible, and a dry forecast
is still on tap for today. With temperatures already approaching
near 80F in the aforementioned surface east southeasterlies, see
no reason to doubt temperatures will peak in the low to mid 80s
across the island chain. A routine short-term forecast on tap,
with no changes needed to the inherited package from the overnight
KEY meteorologists.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1039 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories for the
Florida Keys coastal waters. Light to gentle east to southeast
breezes are expected this afternoon. Breezes will freshen tonight
through Friday, with Small Craft Advisories possible for portions
of the Florida Keys coastal waters on Thursday night. Late in the
week and into the weekend, winds will trend downwards, as the
ridge sags back southwards and retreats into the Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1039 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period at KEYW and KMTH with
dry weather and FEW mid to high level clouds. Winds remain out of
the east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1993, a squall line associated with a powerful
extratropical cyclone ("Storm of the Century") produced a wind gust
of 109 mph in Fort Jefferson, Dry Tortugas. 50-70 kt wind gusts were
reported across the Florida Keys. Miss Beholding, a 147-ft
freighter, ran aground on a coral reef about 10 miles from Key West.
Following the squall line, winds shifted out of the west and
freshened to a steady 40-45 knots, with frequent gusts near 50 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  83  74  83  74 /  10  10  10  10
Marathon  85  75  85  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BT
Aviation/Nowcasts....DP
Data Acquisition.....DP

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