Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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FXUS62 KKEY 120805
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
405 AM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Currently - A broad surface high blanketing the far southeastern
United States is producing gentle to moderate easterly breezes
across the Keys. Zonal flow prevails aloft and dry air dominates
the mid levels. This evenings sounding indicated a strong
subsidence inversion based around 850. All of the above has been
quite enough to prevent any shower formation. Swathes of
stratocumulus have been present, mostly across the Florida
Straits. The rather fast shift to easterly drastically limited the
cooling and drying after the recent cold front. Temperatures
remain in the mid 70s with dew points in the mid 60s.

Forecast - The gradual evolution of the previously mentioned high
will essentially be the arbiter of weather in the Keys through
the week. This high will steadily migrate east southeastward
into the Atlantic and setup shop northeast of the Bahamas.

Winds in the Keys will trend downwards and veer further east
southeasterly through early Wednesday. This will ensure a
continued warming and moistening period over the next couple of
days. Expect temperatures to range from the lower to mid 80s and
the lower to mid 70s. Dew points will gradually climb towards 70.
Rain chances will remain quite slim due to continued stable
conditions.

Winds will begin strengthening modestly and back easterly later
on Wednesday due to the western extent of the ridge retreating
further and pressures falling in the western Gulf of Mexico and
central US. Meanwhile, the subsidence inversion is expected to
vanish as lower level moisture wraps in around the lower level
ridge. This will open the door to at least slight chance showers.
Temperatures and dew points should hold steady.

Through the back half of the week, deep layered ridging will
become better established across our area while the surface high
remains off to our northeast. As a result, winds will remain
moderate out of the east to southeast with rain chances slight at
best. Temperatures and moisture will remain trendless.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024

High pressure over the southeastern United States will migrate
east southeastward then tarry northeast of the Bahamas. As a
result, surface winds will slacken and veer further east southeast
today into tomorrow. Winds are expected to freshen later on
Wednesday as the shape of the ridge and pressures falling far to
the west results in a tightening pressure gradient. A mix of
cautions and advisories may be required through the back half of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024

VFR and dry conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the
TAF period. Near surface winds will be easterly at near 10 knots.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP

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