Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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FXUS62 KKEY 171850
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
250 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024
Quiet weather is still in place this afternoon courtesy of the
ridging pattern. Some benign clouds are transversing overhead, but
they aren`t carrying any shower activity that would put a damper
on any outdoor plans. An approaching cold front brings up to a 10
percent chance for showers between tonight and tomorrow across the
island chain, but tomorrow night sees an increase to approximately
30 percent chance of rain as the boundary pushes through and
enhances lift. Winds will also increase as the front moves in, and
shift around the clock between southeasterly and southerly to
northwesterly and northerly.

As the front moves out of our forecast area on Tuesday it leaves
behind cooler temperatures with highs in the mid 70s and lower
humidity levels. Winds will still feel breezy in the morning, but
taper off over the course of the day. Overnight lows into
Wednesday morning will be noticeably cooler in the mid to upper
60s. The rest of Wednesday sees similar conditions, but afternoon
highs nudge a few degrees warmer into the upper 70s. Overnight
lows follow a similar trend, only lowering into the lower 70s.

The end of the week is where there is still uncertainty regarding
the evolution of the pattern aloft. Guidance is still indicating a
low pressure system in the Gulf bringing increased chances for
rain from Thursday through the end of the week. The current
forecast maintains the slight chance of thunderstorms from the
previous forecast, but the confidence behind that isn`t great at
this time. The takeaway for the second half of the week is that
weather becomes unsettled as we head into the weekend, but details
such a chances for showers and thunderstorms, as well as the
resulting marine impacts, are still fuzzy and likely won`t become
clearer for at least another day or two.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1243 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024
Gentle southeast to south breezes across the Keys coastal waters
continue into tonight. Breezes turn around the clock on Monday as
a cold front approaches, with fresher breezes late Monday night
into Tuesday morning. Breezes continue to turn from northerly to
easterly and diminish between Tuesday and Wednesday. Active
weather at the end of the week allows breezes to freshen again and
turn southeasterly to southerly.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024
Dry and VFR conditions expected at both terminals throughout the
TAF period. Near surface winds will be out of the southeast at
around 10 knots.


&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in Keys weather history in 1880, the daily record high
temperature of 87F was recorded in Key West. Temperatures records
for Key West date back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  77  84  71  75 /  10  10  30  10
Marathon  77  88  71  78 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....AP

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