Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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888 FXUS63 KLBF 291659 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1159 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonal to near seasonal temperatures this week. - Precipitation chances start Tuesday and last into the weekend, with the best chances appearing to be Wednesday night into Thursday. - Marginal risks for severe weather exist Tuesday and Wednesday, though uncertainty remains in timing and scope. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Upper air analysis and satellite imagery show a upper level trough across the Central Plains, with the upper level low over eastern South Dakota. West of the upper level trough, a low amplitude ridge is observed, with another shortwave trough off the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a low pressure system is located in southwest Minnesota. High pressure is noted over western Nebraska and the Dakotas, with a stationary front on the leeward side of the Rockies. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 The low amplitude ridge will begin to track over western Nebraska this morning, bringing a temporary break from rain chances. A generally pleasant day is expected, with widespread temperatures in the 70s across the region, with areas in northern and north central Nebraska in the upper 60s. The upper level pattern becomes fairly active as the ridge moves out of the area. By Tuesday, an upper level trough begins to trek across across Wyoming, with a surface low pressure system generating off the lee of the Rockies. A surge of low level Gulf moisture advects into Nebraska, though the better moisture advection appears to be to the eastern portion of the state at this time. A cold front associated with the low pressure system will provide the catalyst for showers and thunderstorms across the region Tuesday afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal risk for severe weather across portions of north central Nebraska for the storms on Tuesday, however, at this time the greater severe weather threat appears to be to the east of the North Platte CWA. Some question still remains on timing for convective initiation and convective mode, but will be worth keeping a close eye on for the short term. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Wednesday, another shortwave trough builds over Wyoming, bringing an area of positive vorticity advection aloft. Another surface system develops, bringing another shot of precipitation across the region Wednesday night into Thursday. This system seems to be the next best chance for precipitation, and in fact, ensemble guidance remains in strong agreement on most of the area receiving measureable precipitation (90-100% chances). Questions remain on the exact amounts. While measurable precipitation looks almost certain, the 3 major ensembles (Canadian, ECMWF, and GEFS) show a 20-40% chance of amounts exceeding one half inch. However, there is still a chance of thunderstorms, which may lead to some locally heavier amounts. Also worth watching will be the severe weather potential on Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center has issued another Marginal risk for severe weather across southwest and south central Nebraska, but the better chances for severe weather appears to remain to the southeast, particularly over Kansas. Beyond Thursday, the upper level flow takes on a zonal nature with embedded shortwaves. Ensembles continue to show a variety of ranges in precipitation chances, though all 3 major ensembles keep precipitation chances around through the weekend into early next week. As timing of these systems is refined, should have a better handle on precipitation chances late week into the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1159 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 High clouds will begin to increase later this afternoon from west to east across the area. Ceilings will be in the 15000 to 25000 FT Range for both the KLBF and KVTN terminals through Tonight. Look for clouds to thicken Tuesday morning, especially over northern Nebraska where broken ceilings of 7000 to 12000 FT are possible at the KVTN terminal. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Richie SHORT TERM...Richie LONG TERM...Richie AVIATION...Buttler