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000
FXUS63 KLBF 161952
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
252 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Very strong gusty winds continue into early tonight across
 central and western Nebraska.

-Potential for more precipitation tomorrow afternoon into
 tomorrow night with a light coating of snow from the western
 sandhills into the panhandle.

-Cooler with unsettled weather late week into the weekend, then
 warming into the start of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Low pressure is centered just about over the mid section of Nebraska
this afternoon. The low will continue its slow movement
east/northeastward, before exiting the region this evening. Significant
midlevel FGEN forcing and deformation continues to drive development of
showers and thunderstorms on the backside of the low circulation across
central Nebraska with additional low topped convection further to the
east. Despite the lack of significant instability, low level shear and
steep low level lapse rates may be capable of supporting development of
cold air funnels generally east of Hwy 183 and north of Hwy 2 so any
storms that form and attain a modest depth to about 20kft will have to
be watched closely. Any threat for cold air funnels will dissipate
quickly this evening as diurnal heating diminishes and the low
continues moving east.

Northwest flow on the backside of the low will continue to
amplify this afternoon into this evening. Bufkit shows winds at
the top of the mixed layer becoming quite robust with a low
level profile favorable for downward momentum transfer and
strong winds at the surface. The highest confidence in winds
gusting to 60mph continues to be generally along/south of Hwy 2
and along/west of Hwy 83 with a west to east progression late
this afternoon into this evening. While some earlier guidance
hinted at potential for stronger winds further to the north and
east, the latest trends are less enthusiastic with expansion of
the winds. Will keep the current High Wind Warning as is where
the confidence is highest for strong winds and address the winds
for locations a bit further to the north and east with a
Special Weather Statement. WIll continue to monitor any trends
in later guidance to see if expansion of the High Wind Warning
is warranted. The strongest winds and remaining precipitation
quickly taper off from west to east through early tonight but
expect it will remain blustery east of Hwy 83 through daybreak.
Lows tonight will generally be in the 40s.

Right on the heels of this departing low, another strong short wave
approaches from the northwest tomorrow and drives a strong cold front
through the region. Midlevel forcing is robust and expect showers and a
few thunderstorms will spread across the area from the west/southwest
from late Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday night along with
another round of blustery winds. And as colder air moves in behind the
front, expect a mix/change to snow mainly from the western sandhills
into the panhandle, though any accumulations will be light with
probabilistic guidance showing the chance for one inch or more
of accumulation generally well under 30 percent. Highs tomorrow
will range from the middle 50s northwest where the front passes
earlier in the day to the lower 70s along/south of I-80 where
the front passes later. Lows tomorrow night will generally be in
the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The upper trof moving in from the Pac NW will flatten and give
way to ridging over the western US. This will transition us
from a quasi zonal regime to northwest flow aloft with a large,
cool surface high building into the High Plains through the
weekend. This will bring much cooler air with temperatures well
below normal through the end of other week and into the start
of the weekend, along with potential for some showers
especially across southwest Nebraska. Temperatures will start
to rebound with a warming trend heading into the first part of
next week as the high slides off to our southeast and return
flow starts to bring warmer temperatures back to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon
and early evening, leading to MVFR to IFR, especially across
portions of the northern Sandhills into north central Nebraska,
including KVTN terminal. Showers and thunderstorms will taper
from west to east and should be east of the forecast area by mid
evening. Cigs will start to lift and VFR conditions are expected
to return overnight into Wednesday morning. Northwest winds
continue to increase this afternoon with gust of 40kt or more
possible and will remain strong through the evening, before
diminishing to 10 to 15 kts late tonight through Wednesday
morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ022>025-035>037-056>059-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Gomez