275
FXUS64 KLZK 031722
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Regional WSR 88-D radars depict showers and thunderstorms ongoing
across portions of far Wrn AR extending back into Ern OK associated
with an approaching upper level disturbance. Elsewhere, patchy to
areas of fog were noted across portions of SW, S, into Cntrl AR.

This convection will slowly push S and E, moving into Wrn AR through
the early morning time frame. What remains of this system will
then push into Cntrl and Srn AR after sunrise through about mid-
day. While a low-end wind threat and marginally severe hail will
be possible with the strongest of storms, coverage of these
stronger storms should be spotty. Overall, the intensity of
convection should trend downward. An active SWrly upper pattern
will remain entrenched across the region into the long term.

Another weak upper level impulse should move through the flow on
Saturday promoting an additional round of showers and
thunderstorms. A weak frontal boundary will enter Nrn AR,
bringing some additional lift across this area. Highest PoP
chances should be over Wrn sections of the state. Otherwise,
widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible
elsewhere.

The threat for severe weather appears low at this time for Saturday.
Over Nrn AR, amounts of 0.10 to 0.25 are possible over the two day
span. Further S, over Cntrl AR, amounts may range from 0.25 to 0.75.
And lastly but not least, Srn sections of the state could see
rainfall amounts between 0.50 and 0.75 inches. High temperatures
both days will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s with lows mainly in
the 60s, with upper 50s over the higher terrain of W/NW/N-Cntrl
AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The extended period will start off with a cold front stalled across
northern Arkansas, and scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms on Sunday. Any severe weather should be spotty,
and there could be localized flash flooding.

Heading into next week, a large storm system will track from the
Rockies into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Ahead of the
system, the aforementioned front will exit back to the north. At the
same time, the system will try to drag a new front into the region,
but it will likely come to a halt north of the state. This will
happen as the front becomes nearly parallel to the flow aloft.

Given the scenario, warmer conditions are expected Monday through
Wednesday, and precipitation will become more isolated with time.
Rain chances are highest in northern Arkansas closest to the front.
Temperatures will be well above average.

As the period ends, the system to the north will exit into Canada.
Behind the system, a northwest wind flow will develop. The front
that halted to the north earlier in the week will be driven through
the region on Thursday. The front will be accompanied by hit/miss
thunderstorms, and followed by cooler/drier air.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

IFR to VFR conditions persist around the state currently. All
terminals will gradually improve to VFR conditions through the
afternoon hours today as CIGs lift and skies clear. Some light
showers will possible this evening across northern terminals.
Additional rounds of rain will be possible through early next
week. FG will be possible tonight for central terminals where
winds become calm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     79  63  82  64 /  30  20  60  30
Camden AR         78  63  83  64 /  60  30  40  30
Harrison AR       77  60  79  59 /  30  20  60  30
Hot Springs AR    79  63  82  64 /  50  20  50  40
Little Rock   AR  81  65  84  67 /  50  30  50  30
Monticello AR     79  65  85  67 /  60  40  40  30
Mount Ida AR      80  62  82  64 /  60  20  60  40
Mountain Home AR  79  60  81  60 /  30  10  60  30
Newport AR        81  64  83  64 /  40  30  50  30
Pine Bluff AR     79  64  83  66 /  60  40  40  40
Russellville AR   81  62  82  64 /  50  10  50  30
Searcy AR         79  62  82  64 /  40  30  50  30
Stuttgart AR      79  65  82  67 /  50  40  50  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...73