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000
FXUS64 KMAF 232259
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
559 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Temperatures are warming up quickly this afternoon with weak
ridging overhead and westerly winds at the surface. Along with
some afternoon heating, we are seeing some moisture convergence
near and east of Davis Mountains. As a result, a few storms have
developed near the Glass Mountains and Stockton Plateau early this
afternoon. One or two stronger storms could produce large hail and
damaging winds. Also starting to see some activity developing
near the dryline in the northern Permian Basin. As the dryline
pushes east this afternoon, a cold front will continue to push
south, approaching the northern Permian Basin early this evening.
Convection looks to develop ahead of this front, east of the
dryline, affecting the northern Permian Basin region through this
evening. A couple of these storms could be severe but best chances
for very large hail will be far northeastern areas. Thunderstorm
chances rapidly come to an end with the loss of daytime heating.

The warm temperatures continue Wednesday with highs generally in
the 80s and 90s once again. Temperatures around 100 are likely
along/near the Rio Grande in the Big Bend. Low thunderstorm
chances return Wednesday afternoon as the dryline sharpens near
the NM/TX state line. Upper ridging will remain in place tomorrow
so thunderstorm coverage looks to be isolated at best, if at all.
Highest chances (10-15 percent) are generally confined to the
northeastern Permian Basin where better moisture resides. IF we
see storms develop, one or two could become severe, potentially
producing large hail and/or damaging wind. Again, chances are very
low at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A deep upper level trough arrives in the area on Thursday. Ahead
of the trough a dryline forms in the eastern Permian Basin that
will serve as the focus for thunderstorms. Behind the dryline will
be windy and dry with strong winds in the Guadalupe Mountains and
very windy conditions extending east into the adjacent plains.
Friday the trough lifts northeast then north into the northern
Great Plains preventing much of an eastward push to the dryline
and leaving it in the Permian Basin. The trough is quickly
replaced by a second that keeps the windy conditions going into
the weekend as well as the threat for storms forming along the
dryline.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Thunderstorm
activity should remain to the east of MAF and south of FST,
dissipating after sunset this evening. Toward morning, MVFR
ceilings will develop northwestward, but are expected to remain
just to the east of MAF. Diurnal cumulus development is expected
after 24/18Z, mainly at MAF/FST, with thunderstorms possible.
Gusty winds will largely diminish after sunset tonight, with the
exception of FST where a nocturnal low-level jet will keep winds
elevated. Winds become variable Wednesday morning as a weak front
moves into the area, but then settle out of the S/SE again by
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

The fire weather threat remains low tomorrow before stronger winds
and very dry air create near critical to critical fire weather
conditions Thursday into the weekend. The main threat area will be
from southeastern New Mexico to the Big Bend where winds will be
strongest. These areas also did not receive much rain recently as
other areas to the east and have lower fuel moisture levels.
Overnight recovery will be good in the east, poor farther west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               59  86  66  87 /   0  10  10  10
Carlsbad                 55  90  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   61  92  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            59  94  64  93 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           59  82  59  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    52  88  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    51  88  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     59  89  66  89 /   0  10  10  10
Odessa                   60  89  66  89 /   0  10   0  10
Wink                     58  94  64  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...84