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000
ACUS11 KWNS 180132
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180131
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-180400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0477
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0831 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Areas affected...Parts of eastern KS...northwest MO...extreme
southeast NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 180131Z - 180400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storm development is possible later this
evening. Large hail and localized damaging gusts will be the primary
hazards.

DISCUSSION...The 01Z surface analysis depicts a surface low over
eastern CO, with a confluence zone/dryline extending southeastward
into south-central KS, then southward across western OK. While
rather strong diurnal heating occurred across the region this
afternoon, richer low-level moisture (with surface dewpoints in the
60s F) currently remains confined to parts of OK/TX. However, an
increasing low-level jet (as noted in regional VWPs) will aid in
low-level moisture transport into central/eastern KS later this
evening. Moderate MLCAPE already noted over OK will spread northward
into parts of central/eastern KS, though MLCINH will likely remain
rather stout, rendering surface-based development unlikely. However,
increasing moisture around 850 mb will support MUCAPE increasing
above 1000 J/kg later this evening, with decreasing MUCINH as
moisture deepens above the surface.

Elevated thunderstorm development has recently been noted west of
Concordia, and the combined influence of warm advection attendant to
the increasing low-level jet and a low-amplitude shortwave trough
traversing the region will support increasing thunderstorm coverage
later this evening. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient
effective shear (generally in the 40-50 kt range) will support
potential for an elevated supercell or two. Large hail is the most
likely hazard, though the residual well-mixed boundary layer beneath
returning elevated moisture could also support localized damaging
gusts. Coverage of the severe threat remains somewhat uncertain, but
watch issuance is possible later this evening, if a substantial hail
threat appears imminent.

..Dean/Guyer.. 04/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   38969387 37649490 37429581 37879693 38159774 39079904
            39479948 39739878 40229635 40289601 40179499 39769412
            39369389 38969387