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000
FXUS64 KMEG 130430
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1130 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

A quiet night across the Mid-South at this hour. The latest
surface analysis places a 982mb low over Quebec, Canada with a
1022mb high just off the Gulf Coast of Louisiana. The high will
continue to pivot east along the Gulf Coast overnight.

Surface winds have fallen to 5 knots or below across much of the
region with several locations reporting calm conditions at this
hour. With the combination of dry air, clear skies, and light
winds, temperatures will fall into the 40s areawide by tomorrow
morning. The good news is that return flow will strengthen
tomorrow afternoon and push temperatures up into the upper 70s and
lower 80s.

The current forecast is on track with no big changes needed at
this time.

AC3

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

A beautiful, dry weekend ahead with highs in the upper 70s to low
80s as high pressure dominates the region. A pattern shift will
occur early next week as a large storm system begins to influence
the Mid-South with potentially strong to severe thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Winds remain elevated this afternoon with sustained winds around 20
mph, gusting up to 30 mph as we sit on the backside of an upper
level low with a tight pressure gradient. Current temperatures
are in the upper 60s to lower 70s with mostly clear skies across
the area. A low amplitude upper level ridge will set up over the
southern Plains over the next several days resulting in rain-free
conditions across the area through Monday. Return flow will
quickly fall over the region by tomorrow afternoon raising our
temperatures from highs in the lower 70s today to highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s through early next week.

The main weather story of this forecast package is the potential
severe weather coming Tuesday. A deep upper level trough with
associated strong upper level low pressure system looks to eject
from the southwest over the Plains Tuesday morning. A surface level
low pressure system with a trailing cold front will push ahead of
this upper low over the Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon.
Confidence in the kinematics ahead of this cold front denote a
high shear (50-70 kts), lower end CAPE (500-700 J/kg) environment
Tuesday afternoon through late evening. Best severe parameters
look to pan out over areas west of the Mississippi River. The
moisture plume ahead of the aforementioned front will be
plentiful for showers and thunderstorms to develop and spread west
to east Tuesday.

The pressure gradient looks to tighten over the Mid-South, ahead
of this aforementioned front, resulting in sustained winds 20-25
mph across the area. These surface winds combined with Gulf
Moisture places areas west of the Mississippi along a warm
conveyor belt supporting a great environment for possible severe
storms. Bottom line, severe potential Tuesday will rely heavily on
the CAPE field this far northeast, as much of the CAPE looks
confined to ArkLaTex region. A conditional threat of severe
weather looks to be the best case at this time on Tuesday.

Forecast ensemble members depict a re-enforcing cold front
pushing continued showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
through Friday. We are keeping PoPs in the 30-50% region along his
re-enforcing front. Temperatures will meander in the upper 70s to
mid 80s through Thursday with a drop into the upper 60s to low
70s heading into next weekend.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period. Winds
will be light and variable overnight then become southerly at 5 to
10 knots on Saturday. Winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots over
western sections of the Mid-South Saturday night.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...ARS