971
FXUS64 KMEG 040426
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1126 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Main concern overnight is fog development. Clouds are moving off
to the NE and some clearing has already occurred across western
sections of the Mid-South. Most of the area has seen at least
some rain during the last 24 hours and little if any drying
occurred today. Dewpoint depressions have already fallen to 1
degree or less over much of the Mid-South. Low temps will crash
through the crossover temp as well. The latest HRRR model runs
have been indicating at least areas of dense fog as well. Given
all this evidence have decided to go ahead and issue a Dense Fog
Advisory for the entire Mid-South from 1 am to 9 am Saturday.
Also, cut pops for the remainder of the night.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Active weather will persist across the Mid-South over the next 7
days or so. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day as
upper level disturbances move through. There is the potential for
organized weather towards the middle of next week as a low
pressure system moves into the region. Temperatures will likely
remain near normal due to clouds and storms each day. Expect highs
around in the lower 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A mostly dry day across the Mid-South at this hour. Two decaying
MCSs moved into the area this afternoon, but didn`t produce much
convective activity as previous model guidance suggested. The
most active weather is currently near the Alabama and Mississippi
stateline, where a cluster of slow-moving strong storms have
congealed. Hi-res models continue to struggle with shower and
thunderstorm coverage across the region. The latest thinking is
that this activity will continue to slowly lift northeast through
sundown and taper off after sundown with the loss of daytime
heating.

Weak southwest flow aloft will persist through early next week.
This will allow several weak perturbations to translate through
the region. This weather pattern will continue to pose a
challenge for nearly all model guidance, as steering flow will be
weak and not well resolved. Using a more probabilistic approach
is likely the best scenario here, however the 12Z HREF is not
showing much in the way of precipitation for Saturday. Nonetheless,
went with the NBM, which keeps 40 to 60 PoPs over the Mid-South
tomorrow afternoon. Convective coverage looks a bit better on
Sunday as a weak cold front and shortwave move into the region.

Organized weather appears more likely by the middle of next week,
as a large upper low ejects through the Central Plains. Subtle
height falls will occur Tuesday night into Wednesday, where a Day
5 Slight Risk has been introduced north of I-40. A better chance
of strong to severe storms appears to be next Wednesday into
Thursday, where a surface low will track to our northwest. Still
a bit early to sort out specific details, as synoptic model
guidance still has timing and feature differences. A cold front
looks to move through by late week and bring cooler and drier air
to the region for next weekend.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Primary aviation concern in the near term will be the development
of lower VIS and CIGS across the airspace, where some locations
can expect fog development as visibilities to drop to 1/2 mile or
less. Conditions should gradually improve through the late
morning hours, returning to VFR conditions by the early afternoon.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...JPR