Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
357 FXUS62 KMLB 011935 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 335 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024 Current...The east coast sea breeze has developed, with isolated showers and some isolated storms developing along it. So far, the most impressive development has occurred across the southern portions of the forecast area near the Treasure Coast and Lake Okeechobee. The sea breeze will continue inland through the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening hours, colliding with the west coast sea breeze. Activity is forecast to increase with the sea breeze collision, with model guidance highlighting near and west of the Orlando metro as potential areas to watch in the coming hours for further shower and storm development. Any storms that develop may be capable of producing occasional lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 45 mph, and heavy downpours. Tonight-Thursday...After sunset, the activity associated with the sea breeze collision is forecast to diminish across the peninsula. Continued isolated shower and storm development will be possible across the local Atlantic waters overnight. Easterly winds around 10 mph will become southeasterly around 5 mph, with some areas potentially going completely calm. Guidance began hinting at some potential fog development across Volusia County late tonight into the early morning hours, but confidence was not high enough to include it with this forecast package. Will continue to monitor and adjust the forecast as needed. Overnight lows falling into the mid to upper 60s. A similar weather set up is forecast for Thursday across east central Florida. Light winds early in the morning with mostly clear skies will allow for sufficient daytime heating across east central Florida. Temperatures are forecast to gradually climb across the peninsula, with afternoon highs reaching into the mid 80s along the coast and into the upper 80s to low 90s across the interior. The temperature gradient between the peninsula and the adjacent Atlantic waters will prompt the development of the east coast sea breeze, with easterly winds aloft allowing it to move inland. The sea breeze along with the modest moisture across the peninsula will lead to isolated showers developing along it as it progresses inland, though guidance remains somewhat unenthusiastic about rain chances, keeping PoPs less than 20 percent. The east and west coast sea breezes are then forecast to collide late tomorrow afternoon into the early evening hours, with isolated to scattered showers and isolated storms possible as a result. Again, guidance remains unenthusiastic about rain chances, so PoPs generally remain under 40 percent for Thursday afternoon into the early evening hours. Activity will diminish near to shortly after sunset, similar to today. Easterly winds diminish to around 5 mph overnight with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Friday-Sunday...Upper level ridging will remain in place through the weekend, with a few rounds of shortwave energy traversing through the peninsula. Locally, onshore flow will dominate with an east coast sea breeze forming each afternoon and pushing inland. The sea breeze collision is forecast to occur across the western interior or into the western portion of the peninsula. Drier air, especially above the 700mb level, will help keep overall convection somewhat limited through the weekend. Forecast PW values will range from 1.0- 1.1" on Friday, 1.1-1.5" Saturday, and 1.3-1.6" on Sunday, which will struggle to support much convection, especially on Friday. Because of this, there is no mentionable rain chances on Friday, with rain chances (PoP 15 percent) limited to across the western interior on Saturday, expanding to areawide on Sunday. A few lightning storms cannot be ruled out, though hostile mid and upper levels will limit updraft heights. Mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures are forecast through the weekend, however partly sunny skies may develop along the coast. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s across the coast, and mid to upper 80s across the interior. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s each night, under mostly clear skies. Monday-Wednesday... High pressure ridging will remain in place over the local area through mid-week. Locally, southeast winds will veer more southerly into mid-week, with the east coast sea breeze forecast to develop and push inland each day. Due to the more southerly component to the wind, the sea breeze collision will occur more to the east than it did during the weekend, while still occurring across the interior. Drier air will filter across the area into mid-week, with forecast PW values generally around 1.2-1.5". No mentionable rain chances through the period, with PoP 10 percent or less. Well above normal temperatures are forecast into the mid week, with mostly sunny skies. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 80s across the coast, and upper 80s to low 90s across the interior. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024 VFR conditions are forecast through the period. VCSH possible across the interior terminals after 20Z as the sea breeze collision occurs, with activity diminishing after 02Z. The easterly winds around 10 knots are forecast to become light and variable overnight, and some terminals may even go completely calm. Guidance has started to hint at the potential for some reduced VIS near KDAB after 10Z, but confidence was too low to include it with this package. Will continue to monitor and amend as needed. && .MARINE... Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024 Tonight-Thursday...Generally favorable boating conditions will continue across the local Atlantic waters tonight into tomorrow. South-southeast winds 5 to 10 knots overnight will increase to 10 to 15 knots tomorrow afternoon out of the east as the sea breeze develops. Seas will remain between 2 to 3 feet. Isolated to scattered shower development will continue to be possible overnight into early Thursday morning. Isolated storms cannot be ruled out. Any storms that do develop across the waters may be capable of producing occasional lightning strikes, gusty winds in excess of 35 knots, and brief heavy downpours. Friday-Monday... Favorable boating conditions continue as high pressure remains over the local area. Onshore flow will persist, with speeds generally around 10 KT. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form each afternoon, increasing the winds to around 15 KT before decreasing to 5-10 KT overnight. Seas 2-3ft. Isolated showers and lightning storms will be possible through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024 Minimum RH values are forecast to remain right near critical thresholds across the interior through the start of next week, with values generally in the 35 to 45 percent range. Winds will become easterly each afternoon as the sea breeze develops and moves inland, but wind speeds will likely remain below critical values at 10 to 15 mph. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible in the afternoon on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Any storms that develop may be capable of producing lightning strikes and gusty winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 67 85 67 84 / 10 10 0 10 MCO 69 89 67 89 / 10 20 0 10 MLB 69 83 69 84 / 10 10 0 10 VRB 67 84 67 85 / 10 10 0 10 LEE 69 90 68 89 / 20 20 0 10 SFB 68 88 67 88 / 10 20 0 10 ORL 70 89 68 89 / 10 20 0 10 FPR 66 85 67 84 / 10 10 0 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tollefsen LONG TERM...Watson AVIATION...Tollefsen