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000
FXUS62 KMLB 171333
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
933 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Forecast remains on track for a dry and warm day, as the ridge
axis of high pressure over the western Atlantic extending across
North Florida starts to shift south tonight. Southeasterly winds
pick up to 10-15 mph in the afternoon, and could become a little
gusty along along the coast. Combined with low humidity,
especially across the interior where afternoon minimum humidity is
forecast to drop to 35-40 pct, we`ll once again have sensitive
fire weather conditions. Afternoon highs are forecast to climb
into the M-U80s inland, while the sea breeze will moderate the
coastal corridor to the U70-L80s, maybe even the M70s on the
barrier islands. Marine stratocu is producing partly cloudy skies
through the coastal counties and even inland a bit, especially
south of the Cape, but the rest of the area is expected to remain
clear to mostly clear today.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 927 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Southeasterly winds
increase to 10-15 kts in the afternoon, with gusts to 20 kts
possible mainly along the coast. Overnight winds ease to 5 kts or
less while veering to southerly, and could become light and
variable at times. Southerly to southeasterly winds 5-10 kts
Thursday. Dry conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 454 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Today-Tonight... Favorable boating conditions through the period as
high pressure remains over the local area. Southeast winds at 10-15
KT today will decrease to around 10 KT overnight. Seas 3-4ft will
slowly subside to 2-3ft overnight. Rain chances remain out of the
forecast through tonight.

Thu-Sun...The Atlc ridge axis slips southward over the local Atlc
waters Thu, reaches south FL Fri where it is forecast to remain
(nearly stationary) thru the weekend. Winds SE to S around 10
knots Thu, veering S to SW 10 knots Fri then SW to W same speeds
Sat-Sun. Winds will turn onshore each afternoon near the coast
behind the sea breeze, out of the SE 10-15 knots. There should
also be a small nocturnal wind surge Fri and Sat evenings over the
open Atlc of south winds 15 knots. Seas 2-3 feet, except briefly
up to 4 feet offshore Fri night and Sat night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 454 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

High pressure will remain in control over east central Florida
through the weekend, maintaining dry conditions and warming
temperatures. Southeast wind flow today 10-14 mph with some higher
gusts up to 20 mph. Slightly lower wind speeds Thursday as high
pressure ridge axis slips south across the area. Winds become
southwest late week into the weekend with sea breeze development
along the coast each afternoon. Min RH values will reach critical
levels across the interior, falling to 30-35% each afternoon
through Sunday. Along the coast, min RH values will hold between
40-50%. Very Good dispersion is forecast this afternoon and
generally Good on Thursday.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 454 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...Warming Temperatures This Week and Remaining Dry...

Today-Tonight... Very similar to yesterday as high pressure in the
western Atlantic remains in place today, with the axis extending
across the Florida peninsula and into the GOMEX. Locally, expect
partly to mostly sunny skies and no mentionable rain chances through
the period. Forecast soundings continue to show a considerable dry
layer through the mid levels, with a gradual moistening through the
upper layers, which will support high level clouds streaming across
the area through the day. Forecast PW values range from 0.7-0.9"
into this afternoon, which is slightly higher than the last few days
(PW values ranging from 0.6-0.8"). Light and variable winds will
become southeast by mid-morning and increase to 8-12 mph. Winds will
decrease once again after sundown, becoming light and variable
overnight. Temperatures today will be seasonable along the coast and
above normal for this time of year across the interior. Afternoon
highs will be in the low 80s east of I-95, and mid to upper 80s west
of I-95. Overnight lows will be in the low 60s under partly cloudy
skies.

Thu-Sun...Mid-level ridge will get flattened by southern stream
shortwave energy on Thu with a period of NW flow aloft into the
weekend as mid level trough develops over the SW Atlc. Fast zonal
flow (west to east) should develop Sun-Mon as broad troughing
develops over the eastern CONUS. In the low levels, the Atlc ridge
axis slips southward across the area Thu and reaches south FL Fri
where it will remain nearly stationary into the weekend. Some mid
level energy will cross the area in the NW flow aloft, but dearth
of low level moisture argues against introducing any rain
chances. The GFS and now the ECMWF produce a little QPF late Sat
and Sun aftns across EC FL which will be in a region of favorable
low level convergence on the north side of the ridge axis combined
with late sea breeze mergers. But have low confidence sufficient
low level moisture will exist to support mentionable rain chances
so will keep the weekend dry for now.

The low level ridge axis should hold firm across south FL and
block any frontal passages. Resulting southwest flow will turn
onshore near the coast each aftn. Across the interior, max temps
will warm near 90F Thu and low 90s Fri-Sun with a few mid 90s
possible. Daily afternoon sea breezes will keep coastal
communities a little cooler in the mid 80s Thu warming to the
upper 80s Fri-Sun due to a more delayed onset of the sea breeze.

Mon-Tue...Mid level troughing developing over the eastern CONUS
will help push a frontal boundary into central FL Mon and could
bring our next best chance for scattered showers but also storms.
Current forecast has a weakening boundary oozing southward into
central FL Mon so have drawn 30-40 percent PoPs across the
north/central and 20 PoPs across the south but timing
uncertainties exist at this long range. Weak high pressure should
build in Tue with drier air and slightly cooler air as wind flow
returns to an onshore component.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  63  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  86  64  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  81  64  83  65 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  82  62  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  88  64  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  87  63  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  87  64  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  82  61  84  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Haley
LONG TERM...Fehling
AVIATION...Haley