Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 022035
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
335 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF NE-SW
ORIENTED HIGH PRES ACRS THE AREA WHILE A VERY COMPACT AND WEAK LOW
PRES CENTER WITH N-S ORIENTED TROF LINGERS OVER THE DAKOTAS.
ALOFT..GENERALLY NNW FLOW WILL KEEP A COOL FLOW OF AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH NO SHORTWAVE EVIDENT AT MULTIPLE LEVELS. THIS FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS TO DRIFT SWD...KEEPING
IT A NON-ISSUE FOR THE WFO MPX CWFA THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM. THE
SFC HIGH PRES AREA WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE S AND E...MAKING WAY FOR
AN INCOMING CDFNT DUE TO PASS THRU THE REGION MID-TO-LATE DAY
TMRW. A UPR LVL CUTOFF LOW WITHIN A DIGGING TROF OVER NRN ONTARIO
PROVINCE WILL DROP SSE OVERNIGHT THRU LATE DAY TMRW...WITH THE UPR
LOW NEARLY REACHING LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL HELP NUDGE THE CDFNT
ACROSS MN/WI THRU THE DAY TMRW...HELPING IT REACH THE MN/IA BORDER
BY THE EVENING HRS. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE DRAGGED DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...THUS THE FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE MPX CWFA...TMRW AFTN. IN
ADDITION...THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE
CONFINED TO FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT...CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LOW...SO HAVE ADVERTISED POPS FOR MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE MN/WI
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THEN SPREADING INTO FAR SRN MN BY LATE
AFTN. MUCH OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO MAY WELL ESCAPE WITHOUT SEEING
PRECIP FROM THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE WI PORTION OF THE
CWFA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY SOME ISOLD TSTMS
SINCE INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE HEIGHTENED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. ADDING TO THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP SEVERAL DEGREES TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
COMPARED TO TDA. HIGHS TMRW WILL HIT THE UPR 60S TO LWR
70S...FOLLOWING WARMER LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S TNGT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE LONGER TERM ENTAILS A WARMING TREND BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
TIMING OF NEXT FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BREEZY AND DRY DAY BEHAIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
HUMIDITY DROPPING TO AROUND 25 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR REAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT
IT WILL STILL BE DRY.

THURSDAY BRINGS THE RETURN FLOW AND AT LEAST A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE WAA. WE WILL LIKELY SEE VIRGA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID CLOUDS AS THEY PASS TO THE EAST AS
WELL..LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUED WITH THE DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW BUT IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE WE MAY NEED TO
INTRODUCE A SMALL POP FOR THE RISK OF SHOWERS TO THE EAST.

THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY AS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT...WITH A THERMAL RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MIX DOWN FROM
AROUND 800MB DOES YIELD AT LEAST SOME LOWER 80S OVER A GOOD PART
OF MN. WE COULD SEE SOME MID 80S TO THE LEE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE
BARRING SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER. THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODEL TRENDS FROM THE CANADIAN AND
ECMWF INDICATE THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO IOWA. THE GFS IS THE
ONLY MODEL SHOWING IT STALLING CLOSE TO THE MN/IA BORDER AND
RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT FOR SUNDAY. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...
WE MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE MUCH OF THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER
SUNDAY...AND HOLD OFF FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUAD OF THE CWA. SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
RANGE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THRU DAYBREAK TMRW
MRNG. A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL STEADILY INCREASE HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW BUT ANY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
FOCUSED ON EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN MN...WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
18Z TMRW AFTN. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W AND NW TO NEAR
15G25KT TMRW...PARTICULARLY WITH THE FROPA.

KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON VFR THROUGH MIDDAY TMRW. CHANCES
DIMINISH TMRW AFTN AND EVE AS -SHRA...POSSIBLY -TSRA...DRIFT IN
FROM THE N AND E AFTER 18Z TMRW. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE UP IN THE
40-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE TMRW AFTN SO HAVE OPTED TO GO THE
-SHRA ROUTE RATHER THAN VCSH. CHANCES FOR TSTMS ARE LOW...ONLY
AROUND 20 PERCENT. HAVE KEPT VFR CONDS DURING THE TIME FOR PRECIP
BUT THAT COULD EASILY DROP INTO MVFR OR IFR RANGE SHOULD A DECENT
STORM MOVE OVER THE FIELD...TOO EARLY TO MAKE THAT CALL ATTM.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND NNW AT 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SW 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC



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