Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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164
FXUS63 KMPX 171715
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1115 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

.updated for the 18z taf discussion below...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 138 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Arctic high that has had us chilling the last couple of days
is centered over eastern OK early this morning and is on it`s way to
the northern Gulf.  We will spend the entire short term period north
of this high, with the return flow already in place this morning
going nowhere through tonight. As was seen with last nights
sounding, the atmosphere is pretty dry, so we aren`t expecting much
cloud cover until late tonight, as the short wave currently moving
into southern Alberta goes ripping across the international border.
All it will do is supply us with some mid/upper clouds dropping down
from ND/northern MN.

With plentiful sunshine expected, along with a favorable southwest
wind direction, did boost highs closer to the warmer MAV/MET
numbers, with highs in the mid 30s expected out in west central MN.
Only downside to today, is we will see a pretty steady southwest
wind up in the 15-20 mph range all day. Tonight, we will see
continued WSW winds, so no significant temperature drop is
expected and again favored the temperature forecast toward the
warmer end of the model envelope.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 139 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

For the long term, the two periods of interest are highs Friday,
then eventual evolution of what still looks to be a significant
winter storm that will impact the upper MS Valley Sunday night into
Monday.

For Thursday through Saturday, we will remain dry with a mild WSW
flow in place as we see significant h5 height falls in the southwest
CONUS. This whole period, boosted highs a couple degrees over the
guidance, with high confidence is some very mild conditions being in
place. We could easily get higher than what we have, with Friday
having the greatest run away temperature potential as h85 temps
better than +12C come into southern MN ahead of cold front crossing
the Dakotas.  Not out of the question we see some low 50s out
toward Madison, MN depending on the timing of the thermal ridge,
with it looking likely the Twin Cities eclipses the 40 mark. Only
thing that could slow our temperatures down will be the potential
for mid/upper cloud cover. Current forecast plans on a mostly cloudy
scenario given the approaching cold front and WAA cloud cover ahead
of it, but if dominate sunshine is seen, then highs in the low 50s
out in western MN, with mid 40s into the Cities certainly look
reachable.

For the weekend, the big story continues to be the evolution of the
trough that will be ejecting out of the southern Rockies Saturday
night and be in the upper Great Lakes by Monday. All guidance
continues to show a deepening cyclone moving across the central
Plains and into the Great Lakes in response to this upper trough
that fits nicely into the Panhandle hooker archetype. There is the
typical spread in the models this far out with things like track,
strength, and timing, though for 5/6 days out, this spread really is
not bad.  GEFS probabilities for seeing greater than 6" of snow
highlights well where models overnight would say the greatest
potential for seeing significant snow exists, which is across
northern IA up through Rochester to Eau Claire, though it shows the
potential snow swath existing from anywhere from as far northwest as
a Dakotas/MN border to Arrowhead line, or as far southeast as a
Des Moines to Madison, WI line. Further shifts in this track are
likely, but confidence is becoming quite high we will see a
significant winter storm impact the upper MS Valley Sunday night
into Monday.

We will cool back down behind this system, but not with arctic air.
The weather pattern in its wake also look to remain active, with
more troughing working out across the Plains for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Little change from previous forecast. VFR conditions throughout.
Winds will be south southwest with some gusts around 20kts. SW-S
winds will diminish tonight.

KMSP...
VFR conditions throughout. SW winds with some gusts near 20kts
this afternoon diminishing this evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu Night...VFR. Wind SW at 10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind SW at 5-10 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind W-NW at 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...DWE



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