Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 220555 AAC
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1155 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

The 00Z guidance is beginning to trickle in and the NAM is
concerning to say the least. It no longer phases the system with
the one over southern Canada, resulting in a slower and more
potent ball of energy. QPF has shifted quite a bit further west
and has gotten heavier (now 3" of QPF just west of Lac qui Parle
county and 2+ inches northeast of there toward Lake Mille Lacs!)
This is a northwest outlier for now. We`ll see what the rest of
the guidance shows during the next few hours before making changes
to the headlines, especially with the swath of the heaviest snow
on the ECMWF still just southeast of the metro.

The 00Z NAM, 18Z GFS, and 18Z GEFS are advertising a high end
winter storm across much of the area. The GEFS probabilities for
12+ inches of snow reached 80% from southwest MN to the metro and
into western WI, meaning many of its members are showing over a
foot. Probabilities for 18+ inches reached 50% which, needless to
say, is rather impressive as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Today was another day of record warmth across the Midwest as morning
fog quickly mixed out leaving clear skies. The mid-February sun
together with double digit H850 temps yielded highs in the 60s at
most locations, and upper 50s elsewhere.

Dry weather will continue overnight, but another round of fog
development is possible, but should not be quite as dense as this
mornings since there will be some high clouds. A week upper level
wave will move across the region and develop some rain/snow showers
across northern MN/WI on Wednesday, but areas south of I-94 will
most likely only see virga. Temperatures on Wednesday will be warm
again, but the clouds will keep them a few degrees cooler than today
was.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

The main focus in the forecast is the winter storm that will bring a
harsh reality of snow, wind, and colder air to the region beginning
Thursday night and lasting through Friday. Would not be surprised if
a few locations see over a foot of snow. Right now have a swath of 8
to 10 inches, but reality will probably be more narrow with higher
totals.

It was 60 degrees at MSP this afternoon, and in 60 hours it will be
snowing.  That in itself makes this system pretty awesome for lack
of better words. This storm is currently located off the west coast.
Over the next 48 hours the upper level trough will move across the
Rockies and over the Great Plains. Although this system is rather
low amplitude, it takes on a negative tilt and will have a very
favorable low level temperature gradient to work with to achieve
maximum potential in terms of sensible weather.

This temperature gradient will be the focus for an area of heavy
precipitation that will develop Thursday evening. The precip will
probably start out as rain, but should quickly transition over to
snow as the intensity increases. Forecast soundings show an
incredible amount of omega along this Fgen band, so expect snowfall
rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour to lift northward overnight into
Friday morning. This should produce a quick 3 to 6 inches of snow.

Then things get a bit challenging. The next round of precip will be
tied to the upper level forcing of the parent shortwave, and this is
always more difficult to predict with confidence. The cyclone will
quickly mature, and should see a well-defined TROWAL by Friday
morning as continually depicted by the GFS. This will produce more
localized heavy snow, so could see another 4 to 6 inches in some
locations. There will likely be a break between these two features
of the GFS pans out, to some extent the ECMWF, and to a lesser
extent the NAM. That is why forecast snow totals are likely to
change, but the high-end potential remains.

A quick look at the CIPS analogs show 12+ inch snowfall amounts with
most other storms that match our current one. There is a lot of
moisture, with strong forcing, and potential for prolonged period of
snow. In addition, forecast soundings show winds of 25 to 30 mph,
with gusts near 40 mph. For that reason, have issued a Winter Storm
watch for much of southern/central MN and western WI. Looking ahead,
temperatures will cool off in the wake of this system with another
round of snow possible early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued
at 1155 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Areas of fog have developed across central MN, but not expecting
it to expand a whole lot with high and mid level clouds rolling in
and even some showers and storms entering western MN from the
Dakotas. Could see some development across western WI during the
next few hours before the clouds reach those areas. Scattered
showers and a few storms are possible through Wednesday morning.
Some MVFR cigs may drop south behind a cold front Wednesday
evening.

KMSP...Fog should stay away overnight, but showers are possible
after 09-10Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. CHC MVFR/-RA in the afternoon, then LIFR/+SN likely
Thu night with several inches. Wind NE 10-20 kts.
Fri...LIFR. +SN/BLSN. Significant accums. Wind N 20G35kt.
Sat...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday evening
     for WIZ014>016-023>028.

MN...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday
     afternoon for MNZ053-059>063-065>070-073>078-082>085-091-
     092.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



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