Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 190400
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1100 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE EXTENT OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE.

EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH COLD TROUGH
EXITING TO THE EAST. STILL COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER YET INTO
THE NORTHERN CWA...THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SOME EROSION
TO THE EAST AFTER MAINLY 06Z TUE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO NORTH DAKOTA FROM MANITOBA
CANADA...AND MAY BE THE REAL SYSTEM THAT SCOURS LOWER CLOUDS. THE
GFS IS MORE PESSIMISTIC IN OVERALL CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HAVE TRENDED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO THE EAST WITH PERHAPS SOME CLEARING
LATE IN THE WEST. STILL EXPECT TO HAVE SOME WIND OVER THE REGION
AND THIS ALONG WITH THE EVENTUAL CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE AND
REAL FROST/FREEZE THREAT. IF WE DO CLEAR EARLIER...THE FREEZE
THREAT WILL BECOME ENHANCED TO THE WEST. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A
FROST ADVISORY OVER MAINLY WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. WE
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOUD/WIND TRENDS INTO THE HE
EVENING FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF ADVISORY AREA.

ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE FORE TUESDAY WITH READINGS WARMING
THROUGH THE 50S...LIGHTER WINDS AND MORE SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

THE BIG PLAYER WEATHER WISE DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE
BLOCKING RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER WRN CANADA THAT WILL BE MOVING VERY
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN A PRONOUNCED
SPLIT IN THE FLOW...WITH THE NRN STREAM DIPPING SOUTH AROUND THE
ALEUTIANS BEFORE HEADING DUE NORTH ACROSS ALASKA INTO THE ARCTIC
OCEAN BEFORE DIVING BACK SOUTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AS IT ROUNDS
A HUDSON LOW. THE SRN STREAM WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF MN/WI
BEFORE MERGING BACK UP WITH THE NRN STREAM OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WEEK...WE WILL BE
WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE NRN AND SRN STREAM WAVES...
WHICH WILL KEEP ALL PRECIP TO THE SOUTH OF MN. WHAT CHANGES THIS
WEEKEND IS UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SE CONUS...WHICH WILL
NUDGE THE SRN STREAM TO THE NW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.

REALLY THE ONLY CONCERNS WEATHER WISE DURING THE WORK WEEK COME
WITH FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL WED MORNING ALONG WITH PRECIP
CHANCES CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY. FOR THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL...
THAT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA...PROVIDING DRY AIR
AND LIGHT WINDS. THE WILD CARD WILL BE CLOUDS...BUT GUIDANCE TODAY
IS SHOWING CLOUD COVER RATHER LACKING NORTH OF I-94. FOR NORTH OF
I- 94...WENT CLOSE TO MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS...WHICH RESULTED IN
LOWS DOWN BETWEEN 30 AND 34...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER
TOWARD LADYSMITH.

FOR THE PRECIP...REMOVED ANY THAT WAS MENTIONED ON WEDNESDAY AND
NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST AREA WIDE. BEST FORCING/MOISTURE AT H7
WILL BE STAYING DOWN ACROSS IOWA...WITH THE NOSE OF THE H85 LLJ
ONLY GETTING ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS THE MO/IA BORDER...ALL OF WHICH
POINTS TO NOTHING MORE THAN CLOUD COVER FOR US AS THIS SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE SOUTH.

FOR THE WEEKEND...STILL SEEING CONSIDERABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. BOTH SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH COMING OUT OF
THE 4-CORNERS REGION...BUT THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE DEEPER AND
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WAVE...SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF ON BRINGING ANY PRECIP IN
UNTIL SUNDAY. NO MATTER WHAT SOLUTION YOU LOOK AT THOUGH...WE ARE
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE TO THE NORTH OF A SFC LOW...SO JUST HELD
THUNDER MENTION TO ISOLATED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

CEILINGS TO REMAIN GENERALLY AS VFR BUT THERE MAY BE SOME BOUNCING
INTO UPPER-END MVFR RANGE OCCASIONALLY AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
DAYBREAK. AS THE DEEP LOW PRES CENTER ROTATES OFF TO THE GREAT
LAKES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN AND ALLOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER
OUT...RESULTING IN VFR CONDS BY MIDDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLD SPRINKLES IN ERN MN
INTO WRN WI...NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. NW WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH
SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO ARND 10 KT OVERNIGHT AND REMAINING THERE
THRU TMRW.

KMSP...MAINLY VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT A FEW PERIODS OF 2K-3K FT
CEILINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT. DECKS WILL THEN RISE TO
VFR LEVELS AFTER DAYBREAK.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NNW 5 TO 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NE 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ041>043-047>050-
     054>057-064.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC


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