Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 252139
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
339 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TODAYS SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MECHANICAL MIXING DRIVEN BY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
TOGETHER WITH THE SYNOPTIC COMPONENT OF THE ISALLOBARIC WINDS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AND AS A RESULT HAVE
ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THE WIND CHILLS IN WISCONSIN WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT
WESTERN MN HAS A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING EARLY MORNING WIND
CHILLS OF 25 TO 30 BELOW ZERO.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REBOUND
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AT MOST LOCATIONS...BUT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH A
BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE PLAINS...AND A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
ALBERTA THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE MIDWEST DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN TROUGH FROM SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...BUT THE NORTHERN FEATURE APPEARS TO SUPPRESS THE BEST
FORCING AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES
FOR SNOW SUNDAY...MAINLY CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS FOR
NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ENDING ANY CHANCES OF SNOW...AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST. HOWEVER...SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO THOSE SEEN
DURING THE WEEKEND WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A
BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING INTO OUR AREA
FROM CANADA. SIMILAR TO THE WEEKEND EVENT...BEST PRECIPITATION/SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. SINCE THE
NORTHERN TROUGH APPEARS TO BE A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS EVENT
THOUGH...LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY MAKE IT FARTHER
NORTH...LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER SNOW CHANCES ON TUESDAY FOR OUR
AREA. THIS EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...SO QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING SNOW CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS SNOW SHIFTS
SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TAKE ON A WESTERLY COMPONENT BY THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10KT
SAT...VFR. WINDS S AT 15KT
SUN...VFR. WITH MVFR/-SN POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS W AT 10KT


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ041>045-047>050-052>058-064-065-073.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ014>016.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...ADL
AVIATION...JRB


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