Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 130914
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
314 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Today and tonight...High pressure will be the overwhelming surface
feature through tonight, despite the passage of a weak low level
trough axis through the region this evening. Aloft, generally
northwest flow will continue although a low pressure center over
western Hudson Bay will have a trailing shortwave axis which will
move through the region this evening with the surface feature.
Moisture will be limited to the upper levels thus the only effects
will be a slight increase in cirrus clouds this afternoon and
evening. Otherwise, low level winds shifting from southwest to west
today plus the lack of an incoming colder airmass with the trough
features and northwest flow aloft will mean another highly
abnormally warm day today. Highs today will hit some 15-20 degrees
above normal, coming awfully close to record highs, reaching the
lower 40s to lower 50s. Clouds will increase tonight as the Canadian
low drops towards the Great Lakes but any precipitation will remain
to the north of the WFO MPX coverage area. The increased cloud ahead
of this system will contribute to slightly higher minimum
temperatures tonight with lows ranging 25-30 degrees.

Today`s forecast highs and records for 2/13/17:
MSP: forecast high 48, record high 51 in 1890
STC: forecast high 45, record high 47 in 2011
EAU: forecast high 44, record high 47 in 1921 & 1918

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

The main focus of the long term period is the very warm temperatures
forecast late in the week into the weekend.  No measurable
precipitation is expected this week, with our next shot coming
Sunday/night-Monday.

By tomorrow morning, an upper trough will be digging south from
nearly due north as an associated surface low tracks across the
northern Great Lakes.  The combination of cold air and vorticity
advection within cyclonic flow, felt it was warranted to include a
slight chance for snow showers across western WI.  No accumulation
is expected with this acitivity though.  Tuesday night will be
cooler than we`ve seen in a while with lows falling into the teens.

During the day Wednesday, the upper ridge will begin encroaching on
our area by the afternoon.  Raised high temps across western MN to
account for this as we now expect low 40s to be feasible there.  The
eastern end of the forecast area will be a good 15 degrees cooler,
simply due to the ridge not arriving until Wed night-Thursday.

The well-advertised warm up really comes Thursday through the
weekend.  During this period, the amplified pattern will shift the
ridge over the center of the CONUS with troughs to the east and
west.  The EC is indicating 850mb temps soar to +15C Friday
afternoon, incredible warmth for mid-February. Now, we won`t mix
nearly that deep, but it demonstrates just how warm this air mass
will be for the end of the week.  Continued to advertise temps well
above the consensus guidance as this pattern and lack of snow cover
will allow us to reach the upper echelon of forecast guidance for
this period, possibly even higher.  Widespread 50s are likely for
the weekend, and 60s look like a safe bet across parts of
southwestern MN.

Finally, the guidance continues to indicate a system developing and
lifting into the Dakotas by the end of the weekend, placing our area
well within the warm sector.  Dewpoints look to rise rapidly into
the 40s at least Sunday night, so warmed overnight lows into the low
and mid 40s, quite remarkable for mid-February.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

VFR conditions will occur through the period with only few-sct high
clouds and westerly winds.

KMSP...
High confidence in VFR with no concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NW at 10-15 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW at 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE at 5 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...LS



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