Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 032114
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
314 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Snow is now pushing into far southwest Minnesota from South
Dakota, Iowa, and Nebraska as a trough lifts northeast from the
central Plains. Visibility reductions have actually been quite
impressive already, falling to a mile and even 3/4 mile in western
Iowa. Not anticipating the snow to change much in intensity, but
it will become more widespread this evening as slightly better
moisture reaches eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin. Should see
several hours of light snow tonight and Sunday, persisting the
longest toward central Wisconsin where 3 to 4 inches are possible.
Most of the snow will fall late tonight and Sunday in those
locations, when temperatures may be warming into the low to mid
30s. Therefore, there shouldn`t be too much in the way of impacts
unless the snow falls moderately or heavily. For that reason, and
the current forecast calls for 3+ inches only in far eastern Eau
Claire and Chippewa counties, held off on an advisory. Elsewhere,
an inch is possible as far west as Alexandria, Willmar, and
Mankato with 2 inches near the WI border.

A few snow showers may remain into the afternoon over central MN
and western WI, but little in the way of accumulation will occur
after the morning hours with the best surge of moisture headed
out.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Fairly quiet weather in the extended. The main changes to the
forecast was to increase winds on Tuesday above model guidance.
Gusts near 25 mph seem very reasonable. Also increased pops on
Thursday. There is an upper level wave dropping down which together
with the cold temperatures should produce some light snow showers.
Model QPF is quite low, but the synoptic environment supports
precipitation. Other than that no significant changes from model
consensus.

Early afternoon water vapor imagery with GFS 500 mb heights and
winds showed a cutoff low across the Baja, with fast onshore flow
off the coast of Washington and Oregon. This zonal jet will prevent
the aforementioned southern stream low from affecting the Upper
Midwest. Instead a surface low will move along the international
border on Monday. Warm air advection ahead of this low will bring
Monday`s high near 40 across the region, which is around 10 degrees
above the seasonal average for early December. In addition, forecast
soundings show some lift, saturation, and precipitation late Monday
as the cold front moves through. Thermal profiles support a mix of
rain or snow.

Looking ahead, cold air advection will keep the boundary layer mixed
on Tuesday, so have increased winds during this time about 5 mph
above guidance. Seasonably cold air will remain over the Midwest
through the weekend. On Thursday the 03.12 models are in pretty good
agreement with a PV anomaly rotating down from Canada, so expanded
the chance for snow showers during this time. The GFS brings
accumulating snow across the region on Saturday...but the ECMWF is
considerably farther south near I-80. Do not have the confidence to
favor one solution over the other at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

MVFR cigs are beginning to break up from west central to south
central MN early this afternoon and this clearing will continue to
push eastward for the rest of the day. A period of VFR conditions
are likely this evening before snow advances eastward across the
region tonight. IFR cigs and visibilities are expected with the
snow and accumulations will range from a half inch to as much as 3
inches across western WI.

KMSP...MVFR cigs still persist at taf issuance time but they are
beginning to erode quickly just to the south and west. Another
narrow band of stratus behind some of this clearing may move back
in during the next couple hours, so not confident in VFR
conditions until mid afternoon. Snow looks to arrive during the
late evening and IFR conditions are expected for much of the
overnight with some improvement Sunday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Wind SE 10-15kts.
Tue...MVFR. Chc -SN early. Wind WNW 10-20kts.
Wed...MVFR. Wind WNW 15-25kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...BORGHOFF


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