Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 231001
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
401 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE SURFACE TROUGH NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
FOSTER AREAS OF DENSE FOG FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94 THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THAT/S BISECTING THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY EXPECTED
UNTIL THEN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY...WITH ONGOING LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...THEREFORE
MINIMIZING THE CONCERN FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

THIS EVENING...AS COLDER AIR INFILTRATES THE AIR IN RELATION TO THE
PASSING COLD FRONT...SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 25 MPH AND 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS HAVE DIMINISHED
A BIT GIVEN THE AFFECTS THE ANTECEDENT PRECIP AND SNOWMELT.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE COLD THAN
NORMAL CONDS CONTINUING WITH SMALL CHC/S OF SNOW.

OVERALL...THE MEAN UPPER FLOW REMAINS FROM THE N/NW THIS WEEK.
THE 5-DAY 50H MEAN /GFS/GEM/EC/ IS CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LOW
PARKED NORTH OF HUDSON BAY THRU THIS WEEK. THE BIGGEST CHG IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL FLOW BY THE WEEK
OF DECEMBER 1ST. TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...WITH
SOME MODIFICATIONS NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WHERE WINDS GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED IN THE
TYPICAL AREAS OF WC/SW/SC MN MONDAY WITH ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING
EXPECTED. PLUS WARM TEMPS OVER THE PAST 24 TO 36 HRS HAS ALLOWED A
CREST TO FORM ON THE SNOW COVER...LIMITING BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL.

FOR PRECIPITATION RELATED CHGS NEXT WEEK...A FAST MOVING SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WED. THERE
REMAINS A FAIRLY STRONG JET STREAK WITH THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO AN
ENHANCED AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET IN
THE UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN LIMITED...SO HEAVIER
SNOWFALL AMTS WILL BE BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW AND MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. HAVE INCREASED TO 50% FOR WEDNESDAY BASED ON
THE STRONGER JET STREAK AND SFC LOW LOCATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

IMPRESSIVE WARM FRONT HAS MARCHED WELL INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
LATE THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO THE SOUTH OF
IT...IN SOME CASES TO MVFR OR VFR. THINK ALL THE TAF SITES WILL
IMPROVE SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT IF THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTH...BUT CAUTION IS ADVISED AS CONDITIONS ARE DETEIORATING
SLOWLY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. THIS MOISTURE COULD KEEP CIGS
IN LONGER ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI. RWF AND AXN APPEAR TO BE IN
THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR GREATEST IMPROVMENTS WITH UPSTREAM OBS VFR.
RAIN WILL PUSH INTO WRN WI SYUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS MSP.

KMSP...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS...BUT THAT TREND MAY HAVE STALLED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
COULD SEE VIS AND CIGS FLUCTUATE UP AND DOWN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS SURROUNDING OBS INDICATE. CONDS SHOULD LARGELY BE
MVFR...HOWEVER.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/IFR CIGS CHC -SN. WINDS NW 20G30 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN. WINDS NW 10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ042>045-050-052-
     053.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ014>016-023-025-
     027-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF





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