Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
000
FXUS63 KMPX 232128
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
328 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 328 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Clearing has resumed this afternoon after some stratocu filled
back in behind the clearing line this morning. The abundance of
sun today over much of the area combined with the fresh snow
cover has led to some melting as temperatures hover around
freezing. Temperatures tonight will plummet into the single
digits above and below zero, well below current dew point values
in the teens and 20s. IN addition, light or calm winds will be in
place. All of this should result in widespread freezing fog
from late evening into tomorrow morning, which will likely be
dense in some locations. The fog should improve Saturday morning,
but low clouds may remain.

The storm for Saturday and Saturday night still looks on track. Snow
will begin Saturday afternoon from southwest to northeast and
become heavy rapidly after its onset. Heavy snow will continue
for about 8 or 9 hours before ending. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2
inches per hour are expected at times with this snow given
dynamics and moisture present.

Not too much has changed from the previous forecast. NAM/NAMnest
remain strong/western outliers. The ECMWF and GFS may not be quite
strong enough, but generally have good support with their
ensembles. Continued a general blend of solutions, which aligned
quite well with the WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW. This resulted in a
continuation of 6 to 8 inches for southern/eastern MN and western WI,
and 4 to 6 inches to the west and east of there. Similar to last
night, it isn`t impossible to see higher totals (in this case closer
to 9 inches) on a localized scale given the rates and banding
expected. Those areas won`t be known until hi-res models begin to
get ahold of the event tonight and tomorrow. Upgraded to a warning
in the locations with 6-7+ inches, and an advisory where we should
remain just below 6. The headlines extend several hours past the
time snow is expected to end due to winds increasing and blowing
snow ramping up for a few hours after.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Tranquil and mild conditions will prevail into midweek. Highs in
the 30s with sunshine each day will chip away slowly at the snow.
There will likely be fog development overnight at times.

Many questions remain late week with how the pattern evolves. A
broad trough will be in place out west with low amplitude ridging
out east. A disturbance will pass across the southwest mid week,
and given the low amplitude pattern it`s tough to say at this
range where it will track. Chances for rain and snow are still in
the forecast for Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

The rapid clearing from this morning has stalled across eastern
MN, with stratocu filling in behind the clearing line. Expecting
these to gradually mix out as drier air continues to work in. The
abundance of sun today areas to the west combined with the fresh
snow cover will lead to some melting as temperatures approach
freezing. Temperatures tonight will then plummet into the single
digits above and below zero, well below current dew point values.
This should result in widespread freezing fog tonight, which will
likely be dense in some locations. The fog should improve
Saturday morning, but low clouds may remain. Snow will begin
Saturday afternoon from southwest to northeast and become heavy
rapidly by evening with LIFR conditions expected.

KMSP...The clearing had almost made it, and then the clouds
started filling in again. Still expecting clearing this afternoon
and mostly clear skies tonight. Fog will likely develop overnight,
with visibilities less than a mile. Some improvement Saturday
morning, before a wall of snow arrives mid afternoon. Conditions
are expected to deteriorate rapidly by Saturday evening with 1 to
2 inch per hour rates possible until 06Z Sunday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...MVFR. Wind W at 20G25kt.
Mon...VFR. Wind SW at 15G20kt.
Tue...MVFR with -sn possible. Wind NE at 05kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday for
     WIZ023-024-026.

     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday for
     WIZ014>016-025-027.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday
     for WIZ028.

MN...Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday for
     MNZ050-051-058>063-066>070-076>078-084-085.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday
     for MNZ041>043-048-049-057.

     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday for
     MNZ044-045-052-053.

     Winter Weather Advisory from noon Saturday to 3 AM CST Sunday
     for MNZ047-054>056-064-093.

     Winter Storm Warning from noon Saturday to 3 AM CST Sunday for
     MNZ065-073>075-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.