Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 261839 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
139 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE RISING WELL INTO THE 60S AND RH VALUES ARE DROPPING
INTO THE LOW 20S NEARLY AREAWIDE. SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 30
MPH OVER WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ARE PROVIDING NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...INCREASING
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO WORK IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A WARM FRONT...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL TO A SHORT WINDOW THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS...OPTED NOT TO INITIATE A RED FLAG WARNING
ISSUANCE ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS LARGE SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...MAINTAINING ITS WRN FRINGES OVER THE UPR
MISS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRES BECOMES MORE
ORGANIZED OVER SRN ALBERTA. THIS SFC LOW IS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE
OF A LONGWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND GREAT
BASIN...AND THIS TROF TRAILS A RIDGE AXIS ALOFT THAT WILL SHIFT
ACRS MN AND WI TDA. AS THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE E...CLOUDS WILL
STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TDA...PARTICULARLY AS A WMFNT
APPROACHES FROM THE W TDA. AN ARGUMENT CAN BE MADE THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE MORE OF AN OCCLUSION SINCE THE MAIN LOW...A NRN STREAM
LOW...WILL REMAIN WOUND UP AND N OF THE AREA WHILE A SECONDARY SRN
STREAM LOW FROM THE ROCKIES STAYS TO THE S AND KEEPS THE MORE BONAFIDE
WARM AIR TO THE S. REGARDLESS...THE EFFECTS WILL BE AN INCRS IN
CLOUD COVER BUT NOT NECESSARILY MOISTURE. 1000-500MB COLUMNS LOOK
TO REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW ACRS THE ENTIRE CWFA DURG THE DAYLIGHT
HRS TDA. SO DESPITE THE INCRS IN FRONTAL LIFT WITH THE INCOMING
SYSTEM...PRECIP GENERATION LOOKS MEAGER AT BEST SO HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST...EVEN FOR WRN WI WHERE FRONTAL LIFT AND MOST
INSTABILITY LOOK TO BE COINCIDENT. THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
LOOKS TO BECOME SHARPER AND DIG DEEPER INTO THE NRN-CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO MON MRNG WHICH WILL ENHANCE LIFT WHILE PIVOTING THE
SFC LOW MOVING INTO SRN MANITOBA. MOISTURE DOES BEGIN TO POOL TNGT
OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...SO THIS LENDS TO BETTER AGREEMENT
OF SEEING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MAINLY FAR ERN MN INTO WRN WI
OVERNIGHT TNGT THRU MON MRNG. IN ADDITION... NAM/SREF/HRRR DO
DEPICT SOME MODEL INSTABILITY TO THE TUNE OF NEARLY 1000 J/KG
MUCAPE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC TSTM MENTION IN THE FCST. NOT
LOOKING FOR A LOT OF COVERAGE AT ALL...BUT THE PROSPECTS OF
THUNDER CANNOT BE IGNORED SO HAVE GIVEN IT ITS DUE DILIGENCE. AS
FOR TEMPS...THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS MRNG HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA. AMPLE SUNSHINE
AND SE WINDS THRU THE FIRST HALF OF TDA WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REBOUND NICELY INTO THE 60-70 DEGREE RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST
TEMPS IN WRN MN. CLOUDS TNGT AND STRONG SLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FROPA WILL PRODUCE MUCH MORE MILD TEMPS TNGT INTO MON
MRNG. WILL LOOK FOR LOWS TO ONLY DROP TO THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FOR A MORE POTENT SHRTWV/UPPER LOW TO
FORM/MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO A BETTER CHC OF SHRA...ESPECIALLY TUE AS THE CORE
OF THE COLDEST AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY CONCERN IS
THE AMT OF DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE DUE TO THE MAIN FRONT WELL SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...THE PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN/NORTHERN
JET REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH A
BETTER CHC OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM HAVING MORE INFLUENCE ON
DEEPER MOISTURE/CONVECTION. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR
SCATTERED/ISOLD SHRA FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN...AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NEAR THE REGION.

PAST TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHC/S REMAIN LOW CONSIDERING THE MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS REPLACING TUESDAY/S SYSTEM AND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
OF UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE IN THE
WEEK. IN OUR REGION...THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A SHARP
CONTRAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND
THE ROCKIES BY NEXT WEEKEND. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THU/FRI AS THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS. DEPENDING UPON THE STRENGTH OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN U.S. AND HOW IT BECOMES BLOCKED IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN...WILL DETERMINE WHEN THE WARMER AIR REBOUNDS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. VERY DRY AIR IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MOISTEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT
ENOUGH TO BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ALSO
TOOK OUT MUCH OF THE RAIN/THUNDER MENTION WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY OCCURRING OVER WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS WILL ALSO BE THERE TOWARD DAWN MONDAY.

KMSP...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BEFORE
WESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS W 10-15 KT.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT...BECMG S.
THU...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF






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