Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 241218 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
718 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT FROM JUST
NORTH OF ALEXANDRIA TO LITTLE FALLS...RICE LAKE...AND EAU CLAIRE
CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS BAND HAS DEVELOPED ON THE NOSE OF
A 55-60 KT LLJ AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE JET WEAKENS AND
VEERS MORE EASTERLY. AS EXPECTED...THE GLOBAL MODEL DEPICTION FROM
THE LAST FEW DAYS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING WAS WAY OVERDONE ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME ACCAS SCATTERED ABOUT AND EVEN A SMALL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN A MID LEVEL
IMPULSE QUICKLY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
FORCING WITH IT TO GENERATE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHICH
MOST OF THE HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON. DO NOT
BELIEVE ANY OF THIS WILL BE SEVERE...JUST SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE MAIN ROUND OF STORMS WILL WAIT UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE DAY WHEN
THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH
TIME AFTER THE MID MORNING ACTIVITY TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS SRN MN. IT IS TOUGH TO GAUGE
HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME WITH PRECIPITATION
CONTAMINATING THE MODEL OUTPUT...BUT AS HEIGHT FALLS APPROACH AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WILL SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MID AFTERNOON WHEN
STORMS WILL BE MORE DISCRETE AND A POCKET OF 50-60 KT WINDS AT
700 MB QUICKLY PASSES OVERHEAD.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW HAS SHIFTED NORTH SLIGHTLY...SO RAISED TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS QUITE A BIT IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SRN MN AND PORTIONS
OF WRN WI TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS PWATS RISE INTO THE 1.25-1.4 INCH RANGE...OR NEAR
RECORD TERRITORY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

FAIRLY ACTIVE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THREE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TREND IS TOWARD COOLER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH SOME THREAT IF RAIN/SNOW MIX AND/OR
FROST/FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

INITIALLY...THE FIRST UPPER CIRCULATION IS MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY. WE STILL SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY
WARM/MOIST SECTOR ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE
CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDER. THE THUNDER THREAT SHOULD
WANE QUICKLY INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT
AND COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MORNING
HIGHS IN THE EAST...WITH READINGS FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR MOVES IN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND IF THERE IS ANY REMAINING MOISTURE WE COULD SEE
SOME WET SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
MONDAY NIGHT. WE EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY...THE
LULL BETWEEN THE NEXT TROUGH WHICH MOVES IN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE LONGER TERM MODELS HANDLE THIS SYSTEM A BIT DIFFERENTLY WITH
THE ECMWF A BIT FASTER INITIALLY THAN THE GFS BUT SLOWS ITS
EASTERN PROGRESSION INTO THURSDAY AS IT WEAKENS IN THE MORE
CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. INSTABILITY WITH THIS
NEXT TROUGH APPEARS RATHER LIMITED WITH THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE.
WILL HOLD ONTO AN ISOLD THUNDER MENTION IN FAR SC MN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

AS THIS TROUGH EXITS...THICKNESS AND THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER IS
COLD ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX AGAIN AS THE LOW EXITS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOULDNT SEE ANYTHING REALLY STICK AS GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN MEAGER.

FINALLY...THE LAST SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
WILL HAVE TO SPREAD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS AS A SMALL SCALE BLOCK
TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WOULD TRY AND LIMIT
THE NORTHERN EXPANSE OF THE RAIN THREAT OVER THE AREA. WILL HAVE
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS AND WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IN
AREAL COVERAGE AND TIMING AS NEEDED.

THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TREND WILL DEVELOP FROM MONDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL MAKE FOR A TYPICAL EARLY SPRING FORECAST. THE WARMEST DAY
LOOKS TO BE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 718 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER ERN MN/WRN WI WILL WORK EAST THIS
MORNING AS ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN IA WORKS
NORTH ACROSS MN DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. FOLLOWING
THAT ROUND...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING. A
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT.

KMSP...THE FIRST ROUND IS ATTEMPTING TO CLEAR MSP EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF RWF AND NEAR
HCD WILL WORK NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING. SCATTERED STORMS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOLLOWING THE MID MORNING ROUND THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFTER 02Z THIS
EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH -SHRA. WIND NE 10-15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS E 10-15KTS.
WED...MVFR LATE IN THE DAY. SHRA LIKELY. WIND E 15-25KTS

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



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