Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 301045
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
545 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

UPPER AIR AND SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG STORM SYSTEM BEGINNING
TO MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS OF KANSAS/NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. AN
EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL HAD SPREAD NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND WAS AS CLOSE AS NORTHERN IOWA AS OF 3 AM. AS WITH
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM A FEW DAYS AGO THAT BROUGHT A LARGE SHIELD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT MOVE AS FAR
NORTH. THEREFORE...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
IOWA/MN BORDER. ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN WILL SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY...EASTWARD TO FARIBAULT AND RED WING...THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ALONG I-90. THESE AREAS WHERE THE
RAINFALL IS HEAVIEST...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID 40S
ALL DAY. FURTHER TO THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL MN...PARTIAL
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO NEAR 60.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...EXPECT THE
RAINFALL TO DIMINISH AND END.

ANOTHER ASPECT TO THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY. A FEW GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON.
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

A BLOCKING PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AMPLIFIED TROUGHS ON BOTH EAST AND WEST
COASTS...AND RESULTANT RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR AN OVERALL DRY WEEK AHEAD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BLIP
OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN TROUGH IS ROTATING DOWN FROM CANADA. GIVEN
THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT ONLY A 20 POP SEEMS WARRANTED
GENERALLY EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR /PRIMARILY WEST
CENTRAL WI/.

OTHER THAN A BRIEF COOLDOWN TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S NEXT WEEK. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FROST SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN LOWS ACROSS CENTRAL MN/WI IN
THE MID 30S...BUT AFTER THAT LOWS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE
40S...THEREFORE LOWERING THE THREAT FOR FROST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

LIGHT RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF MPX TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY KRWF WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF VCSH OR
BRIEFLY -SHRA DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 12-16
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 22-16 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE LATE THIS AFTN AND REMAIN BLW 12 KTS OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...

ONLY AVIATION CONCERN IS EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 14-16 KTS...WITH
GUSTS OF 22-25 KTS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT THE
GUSTY WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME MORE
NORTHEAST-NNE BY SUNDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. WIND W AT 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND WNW-NW AT 10G20KT.
WED...VFR. WIND N AT 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JLT



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