Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 200917
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
417 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

WE STARTED LAST NIGHT ABOUT 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT
AFTER YESTERDAY BROUGHT 70S TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
...HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT HAVE COOLED THE
ATMOSPHERE NICELY THIS MORNING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALREADY
PASSED THROUGH AND SWITCHED THE WINDS TO NORTHWEST. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN HALF. THE COLDEST 925-850MB AIR IS COLLOCATED WITH THE
EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO. WE THINK THIS
AIR MASS AND WHAT WILL LIKELY END UP BEING A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
STRATO-CU DECK WILL KEEP MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS TODAY. MINNESOTA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE
COLDEST AIR AND SHOULD STILL MANAGE 60S TODAY...ALONG WITH MUCH MORE
SUNSHINE THAN WISCONSIN. NOT MUCH ELSE TO ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM.
WE EXPECT COOL TEMPS TONIGHT DUE TO BUILDING PRESSURE AND HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY NEAR NORMAL HOWEVER...AS
WE WONT QUITE BE ABLE TO MIX TO 900MB DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WESTERN MN WILL SEE TEMPS REACH THE MID 60S...WITH COOLER TEMPS TO
THE EAST. WESTERN WI WILL STALL OUT IN THE MID 50S IN PART THANKS
TO THE COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS COOLER AIR TO
THE EAST WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEK AND BECOME A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE ON
TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS FEATURE WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. DYNAMICS LOOK DECENT WITH THIS WAVE AS
IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...BUT LATEST CONSENSUS WAS TO
DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF POPS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN PROGRESSED POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE PV ANOMALY PUSHES
THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
FOLLOW THE SHORTWAVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BECOMING INCREASING LIKELY
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE REASON FOR THIS WARMTH
HOWEVER...IS THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENTIALLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOWNSTREAM OF THE ROCKIES AS A DEEP
TROUGH PUSHES EAST. WE LOOK TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ENSUES. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A
DECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ACCOMPANY IT BY MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT. ALL SITES TO REMAIN SKC OVERNIGHT. ERN TAF
SITES...KMSP-KEAU-KRNH...TO HAVE HIGH CLOUDS...ARRIVING FROM THE
E...DURG THE DAY TMRW. KMSP-KRNH NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SCT HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPR LVL TROF AXIS AND SFC LOW SWINGING THRU THE NRN
GRT LKS WILL BRING MIDLVL DECKS INTO CENTRAL WI...INCLUDING ARND
THE KEAU AREA...SO HAVE KEPT ITS MENTION IN THE 20/06Z TAF. WINDS
TO REMAIN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE...INCRG TO ARND 10 KT DURG THE DAY TMRW...THEN VEER TO N
WHILE DIMINISHING TMRW AFTN.

KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AND NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS. NW WINDS 5-10 KT TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...WITH WINDS VEERING TO NE TMRW EVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC






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