Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 270007
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
707 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

BREEZY SOUTHEAST FLOW AND DEEP MIXING HAS RESULTED IN RH VALUES
FALLING INTO THE 20S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE WIND GUSTS HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT 30 MPH. A BAND
OF CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM FARGO TO DUBUQUE MARKS THE BEGINNING OF
THE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION...WHICH IS SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING 850 MB JET. THIS 40KT
850 MB JET WILL EFFECTIVELY REMOVE ANY ELEVATED CAPPING ACROSS WRN
WI AND COULD SPARK A FEW STORMS. SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS...HOWEVER...
ARE NOT AT ALL EXCITED ABOUT DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT LATE OVER CENTRAL
WI. DID FEEL A NEED TO KEEP SOME CHC POPS GIVEN THE SET UP...BUT
LOWERED THEM A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE MODEL
TRENDS. AREAS FURTHER TO THE WEST WILL BE BEHIND THE LLJ AND THUS
WILL NOT SEE ANY DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST
WIND STRENGTHENING MONDAY AFTERNOON. A BIT OF ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS
MAY BRING A FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS...SO KEPT THE LOW POPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE ONE TREND...MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
WE WILL SEE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...THOUGH AMPLIFIED PATTERN THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. ONLY MEANINGFUL CHANGE SEEN WITH THE 12Z MODELS WAS AN
EWD SHIFT WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND COOL PUNCH FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK SIMILAR WITH A CLOUDY
AND BREEZY TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WED/THU...A COOL
FRIDAY...WITH THE WEEKEND TURNING WINDY.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED WILL COME MONDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY. MONDAY EVENINGS CHANCE IS ASSOCIATED THE MAIN PV FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED H5 LOW OVER WRN ONTARIO MOVING ACROSS THE
MN. THE NAM/GFS SHOW A BAND OF FGEN IN THE H7-H6 LAYER WORKING UP
FROM SW/SC MN TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. LOTS OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS IN TERMS OF HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THIS DEFORMATION BAND
WOULD BE...BUT STUCK WITH A PRETTY EVEN MODEL BLEND FOR POPS MONDAY
EVENING WITH A BAND OF CHANCE POPS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHANCES TUESDAY ARE TIED TO THE COLD POOL MOVING OVERHEAD...SO THESE
WOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS. COOLEST TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
ACROSS NRN MN...SO CONTINUED TO MENTION 20/30 POPS ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE MPX CWA.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SHORTWAVE WORK ACROSS THE AREA IN NW FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BY THEN BE OUT OVER
QUEBEC WILL HAVE TAKEN ANY MEANINGFUL MOISTURE WITH IT...SO THAT
MEANS YET ANOTHER WAVE THAT DOES NOTHING MORE THAN GENERATE AN
EXTENSIVE FIELD OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER STRONG WAVE DROPPING SE TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LIKELY WITH A BURST OF SNOW AS
IT COMES DOWN OUT AHEAD OF A 1035MB HIGH. HOWEVER...ALL 12Z MODELS
TOOK A GOOD JUMP EAST WITH THIS WAVE...WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING THEIR
PRECIP EAST OF THE MPX CWA. WITH THAT SAID...FOR CONTINUITY...LEFT A
SLICE OF POPS ACROSS THE ERN 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES THU NIGHT...THOUGH
IF THIS ERN TREND CONTINUES...CAN SEE THE NEXT SHIFT REMOVING THESE
POPS.

AS THIS WAVE WORKS INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS PHASING WITH AN EXISTING ERN
CANADIAN TROUGH AND RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE ERN
TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE DEEPENING OF THIS LOW
CAUSES THE PATTERN TO AMPLIFY AND SLOW DOWN UPSTREAM...WITH THE
RESULT BEING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHARP RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL
NOAM...WITH A DEEP TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN
REALLY GETS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENED UP ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH VERY WINDY CONDITIONS LOOKING TO DEVELOP THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER AS A LOW IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 990 MB WORKS
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS WAA SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY...BUT FAVORED THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND TOWARD
THE ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS US DRY...AS THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK TO
START TAPPING INTO DEEPER GULF MOISTURE UNTIL ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW MUCH DEWPS
CAN RECOVER THIS WEEKEND AS THERE COULD BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IF
WE DO NOT SEE MUCH DEWP RECOVERY FROM FRIDAYS HIGH PRESSURE GIVEN
HOW STRONG THE SE WIND COULD POTENTIALLY BE /SUSTAINED 30+ MPH NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION/.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

A BAND OF LOW-END VFR CLOUDS WILL ARC FROM CENTRAL MN ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL WI TONIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CIGS TO SNEAK BELOW
3KFT WILL BE OVER CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI FROM NEAR KSTC TO KRNH
AND KEAU...ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z THROUGH LATE MORNING MONDAY.
REMAINDER OF SITES EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP
AS CIGS LOWER OVER WEST CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY MID-DAY MONDAY TO THE WEST...BUT
PROBABILITY/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS
AT THIS POINT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND GUST INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS /KNOTS/ OVER
WEST/SOUTHERN MN BY 18Z IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT.

KMSP...
SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR CLOUDS WILL AFFECT MSP OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO SCT025. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 18Z AS THE FRONT PASSES. COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA. WINDS WNW 15-20KT G25KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT...BECMG S.
THU...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS






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