Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 192343

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
643 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.UPDATE...For 00z Aviation discussion below


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Confidence has increased in the heat wave for the middle of the
week, while today`s convection across Iowa has decreased the
confidence in the placement of heavy rain and potential for flash
flooding. The atmosphere is still primed to produce heavy rainfall,
but the location is quite uncertain. At this point the best
potential is across southern MN and northeast IA.

Early afternoon water vapor imagery showed a complex of
thunderstorms across southern IA that had persisted most of the day.
This produced severe weather and flash flooding across the state,
but also impeded the northeastward progression of the warm front.
Based off the 19.20 SPC mesopage, the H925, H850 thermo gradient was
lined up north/south across the MN/Dakota border. Later tonight the
RAP13 shows the H925/850 winds taking on a southwesterly direction
which should drive the Theta_E gradient eastward toward the MN/WI
border. This would be the focus for convection, heavy rain, and
flash flooding.

Yesterday models indicated a shortwave forecast to move across the
region in concert with the warm front tonight. However this feature
is not easily discernible in afternoon water vapor not
confident in a focused area of convection. The HiRes models show the
storms over Iowa waning, with some evening development across North
Dakota, but these storms are forecast to weaken by the time they
reach west central MN. Meanwhile, a third area of convection on
the tail end of the 19.15 HopWRF shows storms firing across
southern MN into northeast IA. Trended toward this solution since
in makes the most conceptual sense given the aforementioned
placement of the warm front at this time. The atmosphere is primed
to produce heavy rainfall with high freezing levels and elevated
PWATS together with slow storm motion and the potential for back
building. Despite the fact that it is quite possible that most
locations do not receive rainfall in the flash flood watch area,
continued with the watch since the potential remains.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

There remains no doubt that the heat indices Thursday afternoon will
be similar/comparable that occurred during the first week of July
2012. Based on pooling dew points along a weak front sagging
southward and ample sunshine, heat indices will rise into the 105
to 110 degree range Thursday afternoon. I would not be surprised
to see heat indices around the Twin Cities rising to 115 degrees
due to the heat island effect. Another interesting note is that
the atmosphere will be very unstable or almost explosive Thursday
afternoon/evening, but a unbelievable cap will keep thunderstorms
from developing along this front. If there is any weakening of
this cap due to subtle disturbances, chances of severe weather
will increase substantially. This front will not cool down the
atmosphere too much, however, it will decrease the dew points and
heat indices below 105 degrees Friday. Depending upon where this
front holds up, heat indices could approach 100 to 105 degrees
along the Iowa/Minnesota border Friday afternoon.

Although dew points will drop as this weak front moves through the
Upper Midwest Thursday afternoon through Friday, return flow will
develop Friday night, leading to more heat and humidity Saturday.

Models have continued to flatten the broad ridge across the center
of the country to a more progressive fast west to east flow over
the northern tier of the U.S. by this weekend. This is do to a
very significant short wave moving east-northeast across the
Pacific Northwest, and into the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains
by Saturday. As moisture increases once again as the flow becomes
southerly, chances of precipitation will increase late Friday
through the first part of the weekend. Timing remains questionable
as the GFS is much faster than the GEM/EC, but has slowed down
over the past few runs. Moisture depth will again be very
anomalous for even late July with precipitable water values rising
to 1.75" to over 2.0". Therefore, the potential of heavy rainfall
and flash flooding will develop as a series of short waves ride
this fast west to east flow aloft. Models have a significant
amount of QPF Friday night and Saturday morning as the first
strong short wave moves through the Upper Midwest. All severe
weather parameters are possible as this short wave passes through
due to strong shear aloft and high cape values.

Past this weekend, the flow remains west to west-northwest, with
even a possibility of a cutoff low developing next week across
the Upper Midwest. This basically means the heat will not be as
oppressive and the chances of precipitation increase slightly.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

While the model runs have been waivering with regard to
thunderstorm chances overnight, do find confidence in the latest
runs (particularly the 19.22z HRRR), which develop the batch of
showers and thunderstorms over southern MN late tonight in
vicinity of the warm front. That activity then expands east and
north, reaching KMSP between 10-12z. Another area of activity to
watch will be storms dropping southeast from North Dakota toward
the northern sites (KAXN and KSTC). MVFR vsbys would be possibly
with mostly VFR cigs throughout. South-Southeast winds stay up
around 8-11kts overnight, then increase from the south and gust to
around 20kts by Wednesday afternoon.

Since confidence is still not high on thunderstorms reaching MSP
around 12z, have maintained the Prob30 group for now. Mainly VFR
conditions throughout, with 8-10kt south-southeast winds gusting
to near 20 kts by Wednesday afternoon.

Thu...VFR. Wind SSW at 5-10kts.
Fri...VFR. Chc -TSRA late. Wind SE 5 kt.
Sat...VFR. Chc -TSRA late. Wind S-SE 5-10 kt.


.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for WIZ023-024-026.

     Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Friday
     evening for WIZ014>016-023>028.

MN...Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Friday
     for MNZ047>049-051-054>070-073>077-082>084-091-092.

     Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MNZ051>053-

     Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for MNZ041>045-050-052-053-078-085-093.



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