Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 241122
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
522 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE THREAT OF DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES THIS MORNING.
DID MENTION SMALL CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING MAINLY THIS MORNING. ONLY
REAL FORCING IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN...AS THE WAVE/TROUGH
LIFTS NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
FREEZING...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST...SO
MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. DONT ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 30S AGAIN TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WE MAY LOSE THE
LOWER CLOUDS TO THE FAR WEST LATER TONIGHT AS SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE
MOVES IN.  HOWEVER...MID HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WONT BE FAR BEHIND AS THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TOPS THE UPPER RIDGE.  WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OVERALL ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

THE MAIN HEADLINES DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
ARE THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ON THURSDAY /CHRISTMAS/ AND FRIDAY...AND
NOTABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

ON THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...WHILE DOWNSTREAM SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES.
24.00Z ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS CAME IN STRONGER AND MORE
SUCCINT WITH THE FORCING RELATED TO THIS FEATURE...DEPICTING DECENT
850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT TO DEVELOP BY
18Z THURSDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SWRN MN. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP
OVER WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE MORNING...EXPAND EASTWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUE FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY KICKS
NORTHEAST. COULD SEE A RAIN-SNOW MIX SCENARIO ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI...GIVEN PROGGED
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE APPEAR LIKELY BETWEEN 12Z THURSDAY AND 12Z
SATURDAY...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ORIENTED ALONG AND NORTH OF A
MONTEVIDEO TO MORA LINE.

OVERALL THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS DRY...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE
TEENS. HOWEVER...EVEN COLDER AIR INFILTRATES THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIPS INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY REGIONS. THERES A SLIGHT
CHANCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LOCALLY AS THE WAVE DROPS
JUST SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...BUT THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A
NOTABLE REDUCTION IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL TOP OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SUB-ZERO HIGHS EVEN
APPEARING POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 ON NEW YEARS EVE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 456 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

LIFR CIGS WITH PATCHY FOG OR FLURRIES OVER WESTERN MN. WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO LOW END MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM TRIES TO
DRY OUT LOWER LEVELS TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION SMALL WINDOW OF VFR THIS EVENING BECOMING LOW END MVFR
LATER TONIGHT TO THE WEST. MAY NOT BREAK OUT AT ALL...AND LATER
FORECASTS WILL ADJUST AS WARRANTED. FATHER EAST...WILL KEEP THE
THE TREND OF IFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES HERE AS WELL AROUND MIDDAY AT KEAU. SURFACE
WINDS N-NW A BIT GUSTY TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE APPROACHES.

KMSP...
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CIGS REMAIN BELOW 1700FT THROUGH THE MORNING.
WE MAY GO BRIEFLY IFR AND THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES AROUND EARLY. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW AS THEY
WOULDNT BE SIGNIFICANT IF IT HAPPENED WITH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
32F.  CIGS MAY LIFT TO 1800FT AROUND 20Z AND THEN POSSIBLY VFR
LATE TONIGHT AS SOME DRYING WORKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
STATE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU AFTERNOON...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS.  WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MVFR WITH CHC -SN. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE






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