Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 242048
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AT MID
AFTERNOON. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERED FROM THE LOW
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL MN TO THE SOUTHERN METRO TO SOUTH OF EAU
CLAIRE WHILE A COLD FRONT CURVED SOUTH FROM THE LOW THROUGH
EASTERN NEBRASKA. SOME SUNSHINE DID OCCUR EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA.
THIS AREA HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT ALREADY
IN PROGRESS ACROSS EASTERN NE. VARIOUS CAMS INDICATE FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OF THE STORMS IN EASTERN NE WHILE MOVING INTO NW IA
AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS BEST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR FAR
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN COUNTIES. HENCE...A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CURRENT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WHICH ADJOINS OUR SOUTHWEST MN CWA.
CAPE BEGINS TO FADE QUICKLY AFTER 02Z ON THE HRRR WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN STORM INTENSITY EXPECTED. THE STORMS COULD BE GETTING
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST METRO AT THAT TIME BUT IN A WEAKENING MODE.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES SOUTHWEST MN BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. PW
VALUES WILL PEAK AROUND 1.4 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS
EVENING WITH VALUES ELSEWHERE IN THE 1.2 TO 1.3 INCH RANGE. THIS
IS AT THE TOP OF OUR PW CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE APRIL. THEREFORE A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. QPF GRIDS ARE
WIDESPREAD HALF TO ONE INCH. THERE WILL ALSO BE QUITE THE THERMAL
CONTRAST ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH THE EAST- WEST BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
CENTRAL MN TO NEAR 60 AT ALBERT LEA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE RESULT WILL BE A WET AND
SOMEWHAT COOL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE FIRST OF THREE ROBUST UPPER LOWS WILL PASS ACROSS MN AND INTO
WISCONSIN TOMORROW. AS MENTIONED IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE...THUNDER
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW THAT IS ADVANCING ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. TOMORROW THE UPPER LOW WILL PASS ACROSS MN BUT START
TO SHEAR OUT AS IT REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR TOMORROW NIGHT. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK JUST TO THE SOUTH FROM ROUGHLY REDWOOD FALLS...TO
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MANKATO AND THE SOUTHERN TWIN CITES METRO...TO
AROUND LA CROSSE. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
BISECT THE FORECAST AREA AND ONCE AGAIN YIELD A PRONOUNCED NORTH-
SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS MN AND WESTERN WI. THERE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI WHERE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 200-800J/KG OF MUCAPE AND ENOUGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT WEAKLY ORGANIZED OR MULTICELL CONVECTION. A
STRONG CELL OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN
WI...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY AND THE ADDED
VORTICITY DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW. IT SORT OF HAS THE LOOK OF A
LOW- TOPPED NON-SUPERCELL LANDSPOUT DAY.

THERE IS ANOTHER DEEP LOW EJECTING OUT OFF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL DIG IN A LITTLER FARTHER SOUTH
AND WRAP MUCH MORE MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS IS SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN STATES TO OUR SOUTH.
LOCALLY...WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE
LOW SWINGS EAST/NORTHEAST AND MID-LEVEL FGEN TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
AREA. A THIRD TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS
WEEKEND AND CONTINUES OUR CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM WEST CENTRAL MN THROUGH
THE SOUTH METRO TO SOUTH OF KEAU. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SLOWLY
SOUTH THIS EVENING ALLOWING MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS TO SETTLE
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL MN AND MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WI. THE METRO
AREA WILL BE BORDERLINE THIS EVENING THEN TREND LOWER OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS CHANCES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WITH MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN LATE IN
THE DAY AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WANE OVERNIGHT AND TURN INTO A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN WITH LESS THAN MVFR VISIBILITIES. MVFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY ALONG WITH SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE ENE AT 15-20 KNOTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND SSE 15-25
KNOTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT.

KMSP...A FEW SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES LOOK HIGH THIS EVENING WITH A
TEMPO GROUP INSERTED. THEREAFTER...SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FOR A
TIME BUT THEM PICK BACK UP LATE IN THE NIGHT AND FOR EARLY
MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH -SHRA ISOLATED TSRA. WIND NE 10-15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS E 10-15KTS.
WED...MVFR LATE IN THE DAY. SHRA LIKELY. WIND E 15-25KTS

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...RAH



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