Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 211809
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
109 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THRU TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER BEHIND
IT...WITH READINGS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE DAY OF THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST COMES
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...
REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA WITH A LARGE WRN EXTEND AND AN
UPR LVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING ACRS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
MILD...SUNNY AND DRY CONDS OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S
TO MID 70S.

A PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES SATURDAY AS A LARGE DOME OF UPR LVL
HIGH PRES CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE SERN CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING
CUTOFF UPR LOW MEANDERS OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL AID
IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN CO/ERN KS AREA AND NUDGE A WMFNT NWD
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. THE PROGRESSION OF SAID WMFNT AND
THE SFC LOW PRES CENTER TO THE NE IS SLOWER YET THIS MODEL RUN...
SO HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF KEEPING THE WFO MPX NEARLY ENTIRELY
DRY FRI NIGHT BUT ALSO SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BY LATE
DAY SATURDAY...THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME BECOMES WELL ANCHORED WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEP SWLY SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE WRN GOMEX TO
MOVE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE SFC LOW
PRES FEATURE BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE...GENERALLY MERIDIONAL UPR LVL
PATTERN WILL BRING SEVERAL DECENT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AROUND
THE WRN FRINGES OF THE SERN RIDGE INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY.
THESE DISTURBANCES COMBINED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LITTLE-TO-
NO CAPPING WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF SHWRS/T-STORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MAINLY FROM SAT NIGHT ONWARD. WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1 INCH IN SEVERAL 12-HOUR BLOCKS...THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE TO HAVE SOME POCKETS OF MOD-HVY RAIN AT TIMES. AS FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...THE PLETHORA OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL NIX THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO
GROW TO ANY GREAT HEIGHTS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY OF
UPR LVL JETTING WILL BE WELL S OF THE CWFA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO WILL LOOK TO IA/MO/NE/KS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER. PRECIP CHCS DECREASE A BIT GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPR LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A CONTINUED LACK
OF DEFINED SFC FEATURES WHICH CAN BE USEFUL IN CREATING ORGANIZED
SHWRS/T-STORMS. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE WEAK UPR LVL DISTURBANCES
DRIFTING THRU THE REGION TUE-WED...SO HAVE MAINTAINED PRECIP CHCS
IN THE 20-40 RANGE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION IS EXPECTED FROM
FRIDAY ON THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...WARM OR COLD...IS
EXPECTED ANYTIME SOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID
70S WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NW WINDS HAVE PICKED UP IN STRENGTH AS ADVERTISED IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT THAT AT 18Z WAS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE EAU
AREA. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT THROUGH 1Z /NEAR SUNSET/
AND WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LGT AND VRB
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY PICKING UP OUT OF THE S-SE FRI MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER TO MICH. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD
REMAINING VFR AND DRY.

KMSP...MINIMAL CONCERNS THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVIATIONS FROM CURRENT TAF EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR CIGS. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...CHC MVFR CIGS AND SHRA/TSRA WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDS. WINDS S
      5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...MPG



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